Sea-level rise contribution from Ryder Glacier in Northern Greenland varies by an order of magnitude by 2300 depending on future emissions

Abstract. Northern Greenland contains some of the ice sheet's last remaining glaciers with floating ice tongues. One of these glaciers is Ryder Glacier, which has been relatively stable in recent decades in contrast to the neighbouring Petermann and C.H. Ostenfeld Glaciers. Previous research suggests that fjord and bedrock topography, rather than atmospheric or ocean temperatures, may be the main factor behind these differences. Understanding Ryder Glacier's future behaviour is important as ice-tongue loss could lead to acceleration and increased mass loss from discharge. In contrast to Petermann and C.H. Ostenfeld Glaciers, where the impact of ice-tongue loss has been established by several studies, no previous research has assessed the risk and consequences of ice-tongue loss at Ryder Glacier. Meanwhile, it is unclear whether Greenland-wide modelling attempts are able to accurately resolve the influence of fjord/bedrock topography and small scale variations in ice dynamics for a glacier like Ryder. To fill these gaps, we here conduct targeted high-resolution modelling to Ryder Glacier until the year 2300. Thereby we aim to reduce uncertainties in sea-level rise projections from this area. We find that mass loss is dominated by discharge under all scenarios until 2100, after which surface mass balance losses take over under a high emissions future, leading to a much higher sea level rise contribution.