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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3731
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3731
20 Dec 2024
 | 20 Dec 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).

Monitoring agricultural and economic drought: the Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators (AADI)

Neal Hughes, Donald Gaydon, Mihir Gupta, Andrew Schepen, Peter Tan, Geoffrey Brent, Andrew Turner, Sean Bellew, Wei Ying Soh, Christopher Sharman, Peter Taylor, John Carter, Dorine Bruget, Zvi Hochman, Ross Searle, Yong Song, Heidi Horan, Patrick Mitchell, Yacob Beletse, Dean Holzworth, Laura Guillory, Connor Brodie, Jonathon McComb, and Ramneek Singh

Abstract. Drought events can have significant agricultural and economic impacts, and in many parts of the world their intensity appears to be increasing with climate change. However, drought measurement remains a highly contested space, with a multitude of indicators across both research and operational settings. This article presents a new drought monitoring and forecasting system: the Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators (AADI). Rather than use common meteorological indicators, AADI attempts to estimate specific agricultural and economic drought impacts. An integrated bio-physical and economic modelling system is developed, which translates gridded climate observations and forecasts into outcome-based indicators of crop yields, pasture growth and farm business profits. These indicators are validated against a range of ground-truth data drawn from survey and administrative sources. Results confirm the benefits of the outcome-based approach with the AADI showing higher correlation with both agricultural (crop yield, livestock fertility) and economic outcomes (farm profits, regional incomes) compared with rainfall measures. The novel farm profit indicator also shows promise as a predictor of drought induced financial stress and flow-on socio-economic impacts.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
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Droughts can impact agriculture and regional economies, and their severity is rising with...
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