Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3655
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3655
04 Dec 2024
 | 04 Dec 2024

A Pathways Analysis Dashboard prototype for multi-risk systems

Julius Schlumberger, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Jung-Hee Hyun, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Marleen de Ruiter, and Marjolijn Haasnoot

Abstract. With accelerating climate change, impacts will compound and cascade, making them more complex to assess and manage. At the same time, tools that help decision makers choose between different management options are very limited. This study introduces a visual analytics dashboard prototype designed to support pathways analysis for multi-risk Disaster Risk Management (DRM). Developed through a systematic design approach, the dashboard employs interactive visualisations of pathways and their evaluation – including Decision Trees, Parallel Coordinates Plots, Stacked Bar Charts, Heatmaps, and Pathways Maps – to facilitate complex, multi-criteria decision-making under uncertainty. We demonstrate the utility of the dashboard through an evaluation with 54 participants at varying levels and disciplines of expertise. Depending on the expertise (non-experts, adaptation / DRM experts, pathways experts), users were able to interpret the options of the pathways, the performance of the pathways, the timing of the decisions and perform a system analysis that accounts for interactions between the sectoral DRM pathways with precision between 71 % and 80 %. Participants particularly valued the dashboard's interactivity, allowing for scenario exploration, adding additional information on demand, or offering additional clarifying data. Although the dashboard effectively supports comparative analysis of pathway options, the study highlights the need for additional guidance and onboarding resources to improve accessibility and opportunities to generalise the prototype developed to be applied in different case studies. Tested as a standalone tool, the dashboard may have additional value in participatory analysis and modelling settings. This study underscores the value of visual analytics for the DRM and Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) communities, with implications for broader applications across complex and uncertain decision-making scenarios.

Competing interests: Marleen de Ruiter and Robert Šakić Trogrlić are editors of the Special Issue we are submitting this manuscript to.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

22 Oct 2025
A pathways analysis dashboard prototype for multi-risk systems
Julius Schlumberger, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Jung-Hee Hyun, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Marleen de Ruiter, and Marjolijn Haasnoot
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4089–4113, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4089-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4089-2025, 2025
Short summary
Julius Schlumberger, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Jung-Hee Hyun, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Marleen de Ruiter, and Marjolijn Haasnoot

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-3655', Anonymous Referee #1, 03 Mar 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Julius Schlumberger, 18 Apr 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-3655', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 Mar 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Julius Schlumberger, 18 Apr 2025

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-3655', Anonymous Referee #1, 03 Mar 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Julius Schlumberger, 18 Apr 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-3655', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 Mar 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Julius Schlumberger, 18 Apr 2025

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (30 Apr 2025) by Aloïs Tilloy
AR by Julius Schlumberger on behalf of the Authors (30 Apr 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (07 May 2025) by Aloïs Tilloy
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (09 May 2025)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (21 Aug 2025)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (21 Aug 2025) by Aloïs Tilloy
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (21 Sep 2025) by Bruce D. Malamud (Executive editor)
AR by Julius Schlumberger on behalf of the Authors (22 Sep 2025)  Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

22 Oct 2025
A pathways analysis dashboard prototype for multi-risk systems
Julius Schlumberger, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Jung-Hee Hyun, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Marleen de Ruiter, and Marjolijn Haasnoot
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 4089–4113, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4089-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4089-2025, 2025
Short summary
Julius Schlumberger, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Jung-Hee Hyun, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Marleen de Ruiter, and Marjolijn Haasnoot

Model code and software

Code to create Pathways Analysis Dashboard Infrastructure and Visualizations J. Schlumberger https://github.com/JuliusSchlumberger/Pathways_Analysis_Dashboard

Interactive computing environment

Pathways Analysis Dashboard J. Schlumberger et al. https://www.pathways-analysis-dashboard.net/

Julius Schlumberger, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Jung-Hee Hyun, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Marleen de Ruiter, and Marjolijn Haasnoot

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Short summary
This study presents a dashboard to help decision-makers manage risks in a changing climate. Using interactive visualizations, it simplifies complex choices, even with uncertain information. Tested with 54 users of varying expertise, it enabled accurate responses to 71–80 % of questions. Users valued its scenario exploration and detailed data features. While effective, the guidance and set of visualizations could be extended and the prototype could be adapted for broader applications.
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