Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3377
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3377
27 Nov 2024
 | 27 Nov 2024

Multi-centennial climate change in a warming world beyond 2100

Sun-Seon Lee, Sahil Sharma, Nan Rosenbloom, Keith B. Rodgers, Ji-Eun Kim, Eun Young Kwon, Christian L. E. Franzke, In-Won Kim, Mohanan Geethalekshmi Sreeush, and Karl Stein

Abstract. Sustained anthropogenic perturbations are anticipated to influence Earth's climate system well beyond the 21st century. Despite growing interest in climate change after 2100 and improved computational resources, multi-century climate projections remain limited in number. Here, we examine a set of 10 ensemble simulations extending the Community Earth System Model 2 large ensemble (CESM2-LE) from 2101 to 2500 under the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP)3-7.0 scenario, which involves the reduction of fossil and industrial CO2 emissions to zero by 2250. By the year 2500, substantial forced changes are projected in both the spatial and temporal characteristics of variability and mean states. Post-2100, El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability is expected to diminish, while the tropical intraseasonal variability will notably strengthen. The mean state changes include a global mean temperature rise of 12 °C and a 23.5 % increase in global precipitation compared with historical observations. Additionally, substantial soil carbon release from permafrost thawing is projected over Siberia and Canada, resulting in a shift of land from a carbon sink to a carbon source after the 22nd century. The ocean experiences a rapidly diminished capacity to absorb anthropogenic CO2 after the 21st century, while nevertheless continuing to act as a carbon sink, with an increased contribution from the Southern Ocean to total carbon uptake. The model also projects a considerable decline in low-latitude marine primary production, which is linked to a considerable depletion of PO4 in the local mesopelagic domain. At urban scales, the extended simulations reveal substantial projected changes in the amplitude and phasing of precipitation seasonality, with the same holding for the partial pressure of CO2 in seawater at regional scales, demonstrating that post-2100 changes are not simply amplifications of projected 21st century changes. Taken together, these new simulations highlight the far-reaching impacts of multi-centennial climate change on both human societies and global ecosystems.

Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of Earth System Dynamics. The peer-review process was guided by an independent editor, and the authors also have no other competing interests to declare.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
Share

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

09 Sep 2025
| Highlight paper
Multi-centennial climate change in a warming world beyond 2100
Sun-Seon Lee, Sahil Sharma, Nan Rosenbloom, Keith B. Rodgers, Ji-Eun Kim, Eun Young Kwon, Christian L. E. Franzke, In-Won Kim, Mohanan Geethalekshmi Sreeush, and Karl Stein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1427–1451, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1427-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1427-2025, 2025
Short summary Chief editor
Sun-Seon Lee, Sahil Sharma, Nan Rosenbloom, Keith B. Rodgers, Ji-Eun Kim, Eun Young Kwon, Christian L. E. Franzke, In-Won Kim, Mohanan Geethalekshmi Sreeush, and Karl Stein

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-3377', Anonymous Referee #1, 06 Feb 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-3377', Anonymous Referee #2, 15 Feb 2025

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-3377', Anonymous Referee #1, 06 Feb 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-3377', Anonymous Referee #2, 15 Feb 2025

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (15 Mar 2025) by Richard Betts
AR by Sun-Seon Lee on behalf of the Authors (18 Mar 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (03 Jun 2025) by Richard Betts
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (15 Jun 2025)
ED: Publish as is (22 Jun 2025) by Richard Betts
AR by Sun-Seon Lee on behalf of the Authors (24 Jun 2025)  Author's response   Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

09 Sep 2025
| Highlight paper
Multi-centennial climate change in a warming world beyond 2100
Sun-Seon Lee, Sahil Sharma, Nan Rosenbloom, Keith B. Rodgers, Ji-Eun Kim, Eun Young Kwon, Christian L. E. Franzke, In-Won Kim, Mohanan Geethalekshmi Sreeush, and Karl Stein
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1427–1451, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1427-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1427-2025, 2025
Short summary Chief editor
Sun-Seon Lee, Sahil Sharma, Nan Rosenbloom, Keith B. Rodgers, Ji-Eun Kim, Eun Young Kwon, Christian L. E. Franzke, In-Won Kim, Mohanan Geethalekshmi Sreeush, and Karl Stein
Sun-Seon Lee, Sahil Sharma, Nan Rosenbloom, Keith B. Rodgers, Ji-Eun Kim, Eun Young Kwon, Christian L. E. Franzke, In-Won Kim, Mohanan Geethalekshmi Sreeush, and Karl Stein

Viewed

Total article views: 861 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total Supplement BibTeX EndNote
668 167 26 861 58 30 50
  • HTML: 668
  • PDF: 167
  • XML: 26
  • Total: 861
  • Supplement: 58
  • BibTeX: 30
  • EndNote: 50
Views and downloads (calculated since 27 Nov 2024)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 27 Nov 2024)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 846 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 846 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 09 Sep 2025
Download

The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
This study presents a 10-member extension from 2101 to 2500 of the CESM2-LE, under a scenario aiming for zero fossil fuel emissions by 2250. Key findings include a 12 °C warming, a 23.5 % rise in precipitation, and diminished ENSO variability. Substantial carbon release from thawing permafrost will shift land from a carbon sink to a source. The ocean’s CO2 absorption capacity will decline, emphasizing the extensive impacts of long-term climate change on ecosystems and human societies.
Share