Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3352
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3352
14 Nov 2024
 | 14 Nov 2024

Simulating the drought response of European tree species with the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (v4.1, 97c552c5)

Benjamin Franklin Meyer, João Paulo Darela-Filho, Konstantin Gregor, Allan Buras, Qiao-Lin Gu, Andreas Krause, Daijun Liu, Phillip Papastefanou, Sijeh Asuk, Thorsten E. E. Grams, Christian S. Zang, and Anja Rammig

Abstract. Due to climate change severe drought events have become increasingly commonplace across Europe in recent decades with future projections indicating that this trend will likely continue, posing questions about the continued viability of European forests. Observations from the most recent pan-European droughts suggest that these types of "hotter droughts" may acutely alter the carbon balance of European forest ecosystems. Yet, substantial uncertainty remains regarding the possible future impacts of severe drought on the European forest carbon sink. Dynamic vegetation models can help to shed light on such uncertainties, however, the inclusion of dedicated plant hydraulic architecture modules in these has only recently become more widespread. Such developments intended to improve model performance also tend to add substantial complexity, yet, the sensitivity of the models to newly introduced processes is often left undetermined. Here, we describe and evaluate the recently developed mechanistic plant hydraulic architecture version of LPJ-GUESS and provide a parameterization for 12 common European forest tree species. We quantify the uncertainty introduced by the new processes using a variance-based global sensitivity analysis. Additionally, we evaluate the model against water and carbon fluxes from a network of eddy covariance flux sites across Europe. Our results indicate that the new model is able to capture drought-induced patterns of evapotranspiration along an isohydric gradient and manages to reproduce flux observations during drought better than standard LPJ-GUESS. Further, the sensitivity analysis suggests that hydraulic process related to hydraulic failure and stomatal regulation play the largest roles in shaping model response to drought.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

30 Jul 2025
Simulating the drought response of European tree species with the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (v4.1, 97c552c5)
Benjamin F. Meyer, João P. Darela-Filho, Konstantin Gregor, Allan Buras, Qiao-Lin Gu, Andreas Krause, Daijun Liu, Phillip Papastefanou, Sijeh Asuk, Thorsten E. E. Grams, Christian S. Zang, and Anja Rammig
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4643–4666, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4643-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4643-2025, 2025
Short summary
Benjamin Franklin Meyer, João Paulo Darela-Filho, Konstantin Gregor, Allan Buras, Qiao-Lin Gu, Andreas Krause, Daijun Liu, Phillip Papastefanou, Sijeh Asuk, Thorsten E. E. Grams, Christian S. Zang, and Anja Rammig

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-3352', Nicolas Martin-StPaul, 03 Dec 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Benjamin F. Meyer, 14 Feb 2025
  • CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-3352', Yitong Yao, 02 Jan 2025
    • AC3: 'Reply on CC1', Benjamin F. Meyer, 14 Feb 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-3352', Anonymous Referee #2, 06 Jan 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Benjamin F. Meyer, 14 Feb 2025

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-3352', Nicolas Martin-StPaul, 03 Dec 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Benjamin F. Meyer, 14 Feb 2025
  • CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-3352', Yitong Yao, 02 Jan 2025
    • AC3: 'Reply on CC1', Benjamin F. Meyer, 14 Feb 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-3352', Anonymous Referee #2, 06 Jan 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Benjamin F. Meyer, 14 Feb 2025

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
AR by Benjamin F. Meyer on behalf of the Authors (14 Mar 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (30 Mar 2025) by Sam Rabin
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (27 Apr 2025)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (02 May 2025) by Sam Rabin
AR by Benjamin F. Meyer on behalf of the Authors (08 May 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (16 May 2025) by Sam Rabin
AR by Benjamin F. Meyer on behalf of the Authors (19 May 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (19 May 2025) by Sam Rabin
AR by Benjamin F. Meyer on behalf of the Authors (21 May 2025)

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

30 Jul 2025
Simulating the drought response of European tree species with the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (v4.1, 97c552c5)
Benjamin F. Meyer, João P. Darela-Filho, Konstantin Gregor, Allan Buras, Qiao-Lin Gu, Andreas Krause, Daijun Liu, Phillip Papastefanou, Sijeh Asuk, Thorsten E. E. Grams, Christian S. Zang, and Anja Rammig
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 4643–4666, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4643-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-4643-2025, 2025
Short summary
Benjamin Franklin Meyer, João Paulo Darela-Filho, Konstantin Gregor, Allan Buras, Qiao-Lin Gu, Andreas Krause, Daijun Liu, Phillip Papastefanou, Sijeh Asuk, Thorsten E. E. Grams, Christian S. Zang, and Anja Rammig

Model code and software

LPJ-GUESS v4.1.1 Model Code J. Nord et al. https://zenodo.org/records/8065737

LPJ-GUESS-HYD code used in this study P. Papastefanou et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14000806

Benjamin Franklin Meyer, João Paulo Darela-Filho, Konstantin Gregor, Allan Buras, Qiao-Lin Gu, Andreas Krause, Daijun Liu, Phillip Papastefanou, Sijeh Asuk, Thorsten E. E. Grams, Christian S. Zang, and Anja Rammig

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Short summary
Climate change has increased the likelihood of drought events across Europe, potentially threatening European forest carbon sink. Dynamic vegetation models with mechanistic plant hydraulic architecture are needed to model these developments. We evaluate the plant hydraulic architecture version of LPJ-GUESS and show it's capability at capturing species-specific evapotranspiration responses to drought and reproducing flux observations of both gross primary production and evapotranspiration.
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