the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
| 08 Feb 2024
Modelling transient thermal processes in the lithosphere: application to the NW Pannonian basin
Abstract. The reconstruction of thermal evolution in sedimentary basins is a key input for constraining geodynamic processes and geo-energy resource potential. We present a methodology to reproduce the most important transient thermal footprints accompanying basin formation: lithosphere extension and sedimentation. The forward model is extended with data assimilation to constrain models with temperature measurements. We apply the methodology to the NW part of Hungary. Realistic past- and present-day temperature predictions for the entire lithosphere are achieved, suggesting the relatively uniform, but strong attenuation of the mantle lithosphere through extension, and relatively small variations in the present-day thermal lithosphere thickness. The new temperature model allows an improved estimation of lithosphere rheology and the interpretation of mantle xenolith origins.
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CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-308', Giacomo Medici, 13 Feb 2024
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General comments
It’s always good review original paper on large-scale hydro, and thermal models from Hungary! The research is also original and can be exported to many other areas of geothermal interests worldwide. Please, follow my comments to improve the manuscript.
Specific comments
Abstract
Line 10. “The forward model is extended”. Please, be more specific. The object of the sentence is unclear and the abstract is short with obvious chance for clarifications
Introduction
Lines 17-61. Did you consider adding a general statement to steady state and transient modelling in other fields of geo-science? Many large scale (deep and large in plant view) flow models have been developed in the Pannonia Basin. Your country has an original and well recognized academic tradition on this aspect of geo-science.
Lines 16-20. “Understanding...thermal evolution pattern”. Long statement without references. Please, insert recent review papers in the field of geothermal energy for characterization, production and modelling:
- Review of Discrete Fracture Network Characterization for Geothermal Energy Extraction. Frontiers in Earth Science, 11, 1328397
- Direct utilization of geothermal energy 2020 worldwide review. Geothermics, 90, 101915.
Line 44. Clearly state the other hot basins in Europe (e.g., Rhine Graben, Tyrrhenian Sea). They are not so many and you can avoid vague sentences in that way.
Line 61. Specify the 3 to 4 specific objectives of your research by using numbers (e.g., i, ii, and iii).
Data and methods
Line 127. “We calibrated the thermal model with subsurface temperature measurements from hydrocarbon and geothermal wells”. Please, specify the depth of the temperature data used for the calibration. 0.2 - 5.0 km based on geothermal and hydrocarbon observations?
Line 127. If we assume observations 0.2 - 5.0 km, did you discuss reliability/validity of the model much deeper? The model should not be very sensitive in the deeper part.
Line 127 – onwards. Do you need to add some detail on the sensitivity of your model with respect to the parameters?
Line 127. Link the depth range of temperature observations to Figure 3a
Line 181-222. The time steps of your transient model should be much more clear when you describe the methodology. They should be clear from the first lines. Do you need a link with the Table 2?
Discussion
Line 342. “It has already been”. Avoid to start a new sentence with “it”. Please, revise the language.
Line 347. “These factors”. Difficult to follow. Please, remind the specific factors to the reader.
Line 408. I suggest “considering this scenario”. Avoid to use the word “this” alone.
Conclusions
Line 451. Insert a connector such as “indeed” to link the last two sentences.
References
Lines 477-639. Please, integrate relevant literature as suggested above.
Figures and tables
Figure 3a. Please, increase the graphic resolution. Some details are difficult to read.
Figures 5 and 6. Make the figures larger.
Figure 8. Make the letters of the labels larger.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-308-CC1 -
RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-308', Anonymous Referee #1, 06 Mar 2024
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The manuscript by Bekesi et al. entitled ‘Modelling transient thermal processes in the lithosphere: application to the NW Pannonian basin’ presents a simplified modeling study on the thermal evolution of the NW part of the extensional Pannonian basin considering distinct crustal and mantle thinning factors and sedimentation. The calculated new thermal field is then used to present a 2D yield stress section of the lithosphere. Finally, the manuscript contains a brief discussion on mantle xenoliths. Given the large number of major issues of the manuscript, I suggest substantial revision before considering it for publication.
- The title does not reflect the content of the manuscript. Reconstructing the thermal evolution of the lithosphere and particularly the deep lithospheric mantle is challenging, indeed, because of the large number of transient effects, i.e. partial melting, melt emplacement, phase changes, shear heating, non-uniform upper crustal, lower crustal and mantle thinning, paleo-surface temperature variations, basin inversion and related deformation, water circulation, etc. This manuscript uses the stretching factors approach of Royden and Keen (1980) to somehow consider crustal and mantle thinning in a simplified way, but none of the other transient effects are taken into account.
- The abstract and the manuscript claims that one of the main goals is to better quantify the thermal field in the entire lithosphere. There are too problems with this: (1) the model does not use any observational constraints from the deep basins, crust or lithosphere, and likely it is not sensitive to temperature variations at great depths; therefore, the goal cannot be reached with this method. (2) While the manuscript presents one possible model result, , a sensitivity analysis, assessing the role of different initial and boundary conditions and input parameters are missing, therefore, it is not an easy task to see how robust or reliable is the model. No model limitation section is included, despite the large number of assumptions the authors made.
- The used model parameters: Many parameters are not justified and seem to be far from reality. The source of other input data is not clarified and thus cannot be checked. A model needs to be reproduceable by the community and you need to make available the most important input data. 1. Initial crustal thickness: the authors assume a constant 35 km thickness. What is the source of this parameter? The study area includes metamorphic core complexes, their formation requires a thick and hot crust, which infers that your chosen initial values are lower than it should be. Previous reconstructions (e.g. van Hinsbergen et al. 2020) reported a much larger amounts of extension and a thicker initial crust. Geochemical studies based on xenoliths inferred a much larger initial crustal thickness (Torok et al.). Finally, the basement units of the region derived from the Alps, likely having a much thicker crust than 35 km in the Early Miocene. The initial lithospheric thickness of 120km: what is the constraint on this and how much role does it have? Lithologies: what is the source of this? For instance, the sand to shale ratio is proposed to be 1:9 for the ‘Lower Pannonian‘ (Upper Miocene). How is this constrained? After a brief google search, well logs published by Stano et al. 2016 shows a sand to shale ratio of at least 50%. This means that your applied thermal conductivities are wrong, and this is a major issue. The timing of extension: in the model a uniform timing for rifting is assumed between 18-10. Most structures are inferred to be active only until the Middle Miocene (e.g. Majcin et al. 2015), a few small-offset normal faults would not have influenced lithospheric thinning.
- The model result: this is already a mixture of discussion and describing some results. How is it possible that nearly 0 crustal thinning is calculated for the Rechnitz core complex area, that must have undergone substantial crustal thinning? This is a sign of the wrong model parameters. In Figure 6, it is not possible to read the values of the mismatch between the well and model data, but it still seems to be a significant error. About sediment blanketing: in the results of the shallow temperature field chapter you write: “Positive anomalies are the reflection of sediment blanketing, meaning the insulating effect of sediments with low thermal conductivity.” – The deposition of cold sediment would lead to decreased temperature values at shallow depth and higher thermal values in the basement because of the blanketing of low conductivity sediments.
- How did you consider the uplift of the basin margins linked to the ongoing inversion of the basin (e.g. Bada et al. 2007)? Likely it would have a major impact.
- Structure of the manuscript: The results and their discussion are not separated. You should make clear which parameters and which model outputs are well constrained and what is the sensitivity of others.
- Comparison with previous studies: this manuscript doesn’t even mention previous modelling efforts on the crustal and mantle thinning, surface heat flow and basin temperature evolution. In the detailed comments below, you find many useful papers that can be used to compare your results with previous inferences. Besides well data, vitrinite information is also widely available in the region that should be used to validate such models.
- Because of the many limitations listed above, the final sentences on the new stress envelope or comparison with xenoliths remain elusive and in general they don’t really connect with the manuscript. Instead, you should discuss the sensitivity and reliability of the thermal model and compare it with previous inferences and with other similar regions.
further detailed comments:
Title: it does not reflect the content of the manuscript
Abstract: reliable thermal evolution is not modelled for the entire lithosphere due to the limitations of the modelling approach and lack of constraints
ln 19-20: not all the sedimentary basins are extensional
ln 22: Royden and Keen 1980
ln 32: most thermo-mechanical models are constrained by observations, e.g. Lescoutre et al. 2019; Heckenbach et al. 2021; many others
ln 37: in the upper crust
ln 44: sometimes you include Late Miocene, in other places you write Early to Middle Miocene. Which is true?
ln 47: how is this inversion stage considered in the model?
ln 53: i.e. compositional changes through sedimentation: what does this mean?
ln 54-56: you should reflect on the large number of previous thermal modelling efforts in the region, including, but not limited to: Lankreijer et al. 1999; Majcin et al. 2015; Bartha et al. 2018; Balasz et al. 2021; Rybar and Kotulova 2023
ln 59: "high precision" - can you elaborate?
ln 59: for (not to)
ln 73: lower plate with respect to what? Out of context.
fig. 2: what is the sedimentary basin on the right side? Also indicate the orientation of the section.
ln 87: justification?
ln 91: delete -
ln 95: where is this thickness map presented, shown?
ln 100-101: justification?
ln 118-120: rephrase
table 1: what about paleogene rocks?
table 1: what is the source of information behind this data?
ln 128: is it available or the most important data now made available with this manuscript?
ln 135: meters?
ln 136: in fact I cannot see too many wells in the deep basins. Elaborate
Figure 3: scale of the basement depth map?
ln 161: what about different amounts of upper and lower crustal thinning, likely affecting the Rechnitz region?
ln173: sensitivity of this assumption? What if the initial lithopsheric thickness was lower or higher?
ln 174-175: In this model, when the lithosphere was thinned to ca. 60 km, you had a 60 km depth domain of constant temperature beneath? How reliable is this? Why dont you use a constant heat flow lower boundary condition?
Ln 180: so your model is only accurate until 5-10 km depth?
Ln 190: instead of this, it would be more useful to write about the thinning factors of the study area
Ln 196: grammar
Ln 198-200: what is the limitation of this?
Table 2: Lab: 120 meters?
Ln 204: There are many other studies calculating different crustal and mantle thinning, e.g.: Lankreijer et al. 1995; 1999; Majcin et al. 2015; Bartha et al. 2018; Balasz et al. 2021; Rybar and Kotulova 2023
Ln 205: Primary?
Ln 206: what does past-extension mean?
Ln 209: why 35 km?
Fig. 5: how would you discuss these patterns?
Ln 259-263: this is discussion, not results
Ln 275: I would respectfully challenge this statement. How can you be sure that the deposition of cold sediments would increase the temperature in such shallow depth? It would increase at larger depth. Of course, you have higher temperature values, where the crust is thinner and therefore the mantle is more elevated.
Figure 7: which wells are these, what is the source of information? Is it open-source? At least the used and presented well data should be better documented and shared with this manuscript. It is also a warning sign how the errors increase with depth which questions the reliability of the models.
Ln 294: ref
Fig. 10: on the well data the basin was much shallower, which is right? Furthermore, it is not likely that the crust would be laterally homogenous, therefore it is difficult to understand the value of this cross-section.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-308-RC1
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