Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3023
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3023
15 Oct 2024
 | 15 Oct 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

ESD Ideas: Climate tipping is not instantaneous – the duration of an overshoot matters

Paul David Longden Ritchie, Chris Huntingford, and Peter Cox

Abstract. Climate Tipping Points are not instantaneous upon crossing critical thresholds in global warming, as is often assumed. Instead, it is possible to temporarily overshoot a threshold without causing tipping, provided the duration of the overshoot is short. In this Idea, we demonstrate that restricting the time over 1.5 °C would considerably reduce tipping point risks.

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Paul David Longden Ritchie, Chris Huntingford, and Peter Cox

Status: open (until 04 Dec 2024)

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Paul David Longden Ritchie, Chris Huntingford, and Peter Cox
Paul David Longden Ritchie, Chris Huntingford, and Peter Cox

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Short summary
Climate Tipping Points are not instantaneous upon crossing critical thresholds in global warming, as is often assumed. Instead, it is possible to temporarily overshoot a threshold without causing tipping, provided the duration of the overshoot is short. In this Idea, we demonstrate that restricting the time over 1.5 °C would considerably reduce tipping point risks.