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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3023
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3023
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Preprints
15 Oct 2024
 | 15 Oct 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

ESD Ideas: Climate tipping is not instantaneous – the duration of an overshoot matters

Paul David Longden Ritchie, Chris Huntingford, and Peter Cox

Abstract. Climate Tipping Points are not instantaneous upon crossing critical thresholds in global warming, as is often assumed. Instead, it is possible to temporarily overshoot a threshold without causing tipping, provided the duration of the overshoot is short. In this Idea, we demonstrate that restricting the time over 1.5 °C would considerably reduce tipping point risks.

How to cite. Ritchie, P. D. L., Huntingford, C., and Cox, P.: ESD Ideas: Climate tipping is not instantaneous – the duration of an overshoot matters, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3023, 2024.
Received: 26 Sep 2024 – Discussion started: 15 Oct 2024
Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Paul David Longden Ritchie, Chris Huntingford, and Peter Cox

Status: open (until 26 Nov 2024)

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Paul David Longden Ritchie, Chris Huntingford, and Peter Cox

Video supplement

3D Overshoot animation Paul Ritchie https://github.com/PaulRitchie89/tipping_animations/blob/master/Overshoots_3d_movie_v2.mp4

Paul David Longden Ritchie, Chris Huntingford, and Peter Cox
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Latest update: 15 Oct 2024
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Short summary
Climate Tipping Points are not instantaneous upon crossing critical thresholds in global warming, as is often assumed. Instead, it is possible to temporarily overshoot a threshold without causing tipping, provided the duration of the overshoot is short. In this Idea, we demonstrate that restricting the time over 1.5 °C would considerably reduce tipping point risks.
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