Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3023
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3023
15 Oct 2024
 | 15 Oct 2024

ESD Ideas: Climate tipping is not instantaneous – the duration of an overshoot matters

Paul David Longden Ritchie, Chris Huntingford, and Peter Cox

Abstract. Climate Tipping Points are not instantaneous upon crossing critical thresholds in global warming, as is often assumed. Instead, it is possible to temporarily overshoot a threshold without causing tipping, provided the duration of the overshoot is short. In this Idea, we demonstrate that restricting the time over 1.5 °C would considerably reduce tipping point risks.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
Share

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

15 Sep 2025
| Highlight paper
ESD Ideas: Climate tipping is not instantaneous – the duration of an overshoot matters
Paul D. L. Ritchie, Chris Huntingford, and Peter M. Cox
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1523–1526, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1523-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1523-2025, 2025
Short summary Chief editor
Paul David Longden Ritchie, Chris Huntingford, and Peter Cox

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-3023', Anonymous Referee #1, 03 Dec 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Paul Ritchie, 30 Jan 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-3023', Anonymous Referee #2, 05 Dec 2024
    • RC3: 'Reply on RC2', Anonymous Referee #2, 05 Dec 2024
      • AC2: 'Reply on RC3', Paul Ritchie, 30 Jan 2025
  • RC4: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-3023', Anonymous Referee #3, 09 Dec 2024
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC4', Paul Ritchie, 30 Jan 2025

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-3023', Anonymous Referee #1, 03 Dec 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Paul Ritchie, 30 Jan 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-3023', Anonymous Referee #2, 05 Dec 2024
    • RC3: 'Reply on RC2', Anonymous Referee #2, 05 Dec 2024
      • AC2: 'Reply on RC3', Paul Ritchie, 30 Jan 2025
  • RC4: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-3023', Anonymous Referee #3, 09 Dec 2024
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC4', Paul Ritchie, 30 Jan 2025

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (14 Feb 2025) by Axel Kleidon
AR by Paul Ritchie on behalf of the Authors (13 Mar 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (25 Mar 2025) by Axel Kleidon
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (26 Mar 2025)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (04 Apr 2025)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (08 May 2025) by Axel Kleidon
AR by Paul Ritchie on behalf of the Authors (16 Jun 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (27 Jun 2025) by Axel Kleidon
AR by Paul Ritchie on behalf of the Authors (03 Jul 2025)

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

15 Sep 2025
| Highlight paper
ESD Ideas: Climate tipping is not instantaneous – the duration of an overshoot matters
Paul D. L. Ritchie, Chris Huntingford, and Peter M. Cox
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1523–1526, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1523-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1523-2025, 2025
Short summary Chief editor
Paul David Longden Ritchie, Chris Huntingford, and Peter Cox
Paul David Longden Ritchie, Chris Huntingford, and Peter Cox

Viewed

Total article views: 1,968 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
1,462 400 106 1,968 55 84
  • HTML: 1,462
  • PDF: 400
  • XML: 106
  • Total: 1,968
  • BibTeX: 55
  • EndNote: 84
Views and downloads (calculated since 15 Oct 2024)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 15 Oct 2024)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 1,918 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 1,918 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 

Cited

Latest update: 15 Sep 2025
Download

The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
Climate Tipping Points are not instantaneous upon crossing critical thresholds in global warming, as is often assumed. Instead, it is possible to temporarily overshoot a threshold without causing tipping, provided the duration of the overshoot is short. In this Idea, we demonstrate that restricting the time over 1.5 °C would considerably reduce tipping point risks.
Share