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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3023
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3023
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
15 Oct 2024
| 15 Oct 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.
ESD Ideas: Climate tipping is not instantaneous – the duration of an overshoot matters
Abstract. Climate Tipping Points are not instantaneous upon crossing critical thresholds in global warming, as is often assumed. Instead, it is possible to temporarily overshoot a threshold without causing tipping, provided the duration of the overshoot is short. In this Idea, we demonstrate that restricting the time over 1.5 °C would considerably reduce tipping point risks.
How to cite. Ritchie, P. D. L., Huntingford, C., and Cox, P.: ESD Ideas: Climate tipping is not instantaneous – the duration of an overshoot matters, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3023, 2024.
Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
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Video supplement
3D Overshoot animation Paul Ritchie https://github.com/PaulRitchie89/tipping_animations/blob/master/Overshoots_3d_movie_v2.mp4
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Paul David Longden Ritchie
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Global Systems Institute, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Chris Huntingford
UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
Peter Cox
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Global Systems Institute, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
Short summary
Climate Tipping Points are not instantaneous upon crossing critical thresholds in global warming, as is often assumed. Instead, it is possible to temporarily overshoot a threshold without causing tipping, provided the duration of the overshoot is short. In this Idea, we demonstrate that restricting the time over 1.5 °C would considerably reduce tipping point risks.
Climate Tipping Points are not instantaneous upon crossing critical thresholds in global...