Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3017
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3017
28 Nov 2024
 | 28 Nov 2024

Econometric Modelling for Estimating Direct Flood Damage to Firms: A Local-Scale Approach Using Post-Event Records in Italy

Marta Ballocci, Daniela Molinari, Giovanni Marin, Marta Galliani, Alessio Domeneghetti, Giovanni Menduni, Simone Sterlacchini, and Francesco Ballio

Abstract. Managing flood risk is crucial for achieving global sustainability. Particularly, flood damage to firms' assets imposes significant financial stress, necessitating efforts to minimize future consequences. However, current tools and knowledge for estimating flood damage to firms are inadequate, primarily due to a lack of high-quality damage data and the diversity of enterprise characteristics, complicating generalization. This study aims to improve understanding micro- local scale flood damage to firms in Italy through the analysis of empirical data, focusing specifically on direct damage. The dataset comprises 812 observed damage records collected after five flood events. Damage is categorized into building structure, stock, and equipment. The analysis reveals relationships between damage, economic sector, and water depth. Results indicate that damage increases at a rate less than proportional to the firm surface area and with water depth significantly explaining only stock damage. The quantification of the damage across different sectors highlights, healthcare, commercial, and manufacturing categories as the most vulnerable for building structure, stock, and equipment damage, respectively. The derived damage model offers better predictive accuracy than foreign models in the Italian context. These findings aid in developing effective, tailored risk mitigation strategies and provide valuable insights for future research and policy aimed at reducing flood impacts on firm in Italy.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

19 Jan 2026
Econometric modelling for estimating direct flood damage to firms: a micro-scale approach using post-event records in Italy
Marta Ballocci, Daniela Molinari, Giovanni Marin, Marta Galliani, Alessio Domeneghetti, Giovanni Menduni, Simone Sterlacchini, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 251–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-251-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-251-2026, 2026
Short summary
Marta Ballocci, Daniela Molinari, Giovanni Marin, Marta Galliani, Alessio Domeneghetti, Giovanni Menduni, Simone Sterlacchini, and Francesco Ballio

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-3017', Anonymous Referee #1, 06 Jan 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Marta Ballocci, 19 Jun 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-3017', Anonymous Referee #2, 09 May 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Marta Ballocci, 19 Jun 2025

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-3017', Anonymous Referee #1, 06 Jan 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Marta Ballocci, 19 Jun 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-3017', Anonymous Referee #2, 09 May 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Marta Ballocci, 19 Jun 2025

Peer review completion

AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (04 Jul 2025) by Paolo Tarolli
AR by Marta Ballocci on behalf of the Authors (14 Oct 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (08 Nov 2025) by Paolo Tarolli
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (18 Nov 2025)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (22 Nov 2025)
ED: Publish as is (14 Dec 2025) by Paolo Tarolli
AR by Marta Ballocci on behalf of the Authors (19 Dec 2025)  Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

19 Jan 2026
Econometric modelling for estimating direct flood damage to firms: a micro-scale approach using post-event records in Italy
Marta Ballocci, Daniela Molinari, Giovanni Marin, Marta Galliani, Alessio Domeneghetti, Giovanni Menduni, Simone Sterlacchini, and Francesco Ballio
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 251–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-251-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-251-2026, 2026
Short summary
Marta Ballocci, Daniela Molinari, Giovanni Marin, Marta Galliani, Alessio Domeneghetti, Giovanni Menduni, Simone Sterlacchini, and Francesco Ballio
Marta Ballocci, Daniela Molinari, Giovanni Marin, Marta Galliani, Alessio Domeneghetti, Giovanni Menduni, Simone Sterlacchini, and Francesco Ballio

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Short summary
This study estimates flood direct damage to businesses in Italy using 812 damage records from five riverine flood case studies. A multiple regression model predicts economic damage based on business size, water depth, and economic sectors. The results show that damage increases non-proportionally with firm size, while water depth mainly affects stock damage. Healthcare, commercial, and manufacturing sectors are most vulnerable to building, stock, and equipment damage, respectively.
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