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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2866
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2866
30 Sep 2024
 | 30 Sep 2024

Intermodel comparison of the atmospheric composition changes due to emissions from a future supersonic aircraft fleet

Jurriaan A. van 't Hoff, Didier Hauglustaine, Johannes Pletzer, Agnieszka Skowron, Volker Grewe, Sigrun Matthes, Maximilian M. Meuser, Robin N. Thor, and Irene C. Dedoussi

Abstract. Commercial supersonic aircraft may return in the near future, offering reduced travel times while flying higher in the atmosphere than present-day aircraft. Their emissions can change the composition of the atmosphere, particularly in the concentration and spatial distribution of ozone, aerosols, and greenhouse gases, posing risks to both the climate and public health. We present a comprehensive multi-model assessment of the impact of a supersonic fleet on a 2050 atmosphere using four state-of-the-art atmospheric models (EMAC, GEOS-Chem, LMDZ-INCA, MOZART-3). We show that the adoption of a fleet with a NOx emissions index of 4.6 g(NO2)/kg(fuel) leads to a model-mean stratospheric H2O burden of +61.34 Tg for 46.2 Tg of annual H2O emissions, and an ozone column loss of -0.11 %. With a NOx emissions index of 13.8 g(NO2)/kg(fuel) the average ozone column loss increases to -0.31 %. A lower cruise altitude and speed reduces the mean H2O burden to +9.34 Tg and instead leads to an ozone column increase of +0.02 %. Compared to the most recent multi-model assessment (2007), we find better agreement between the models, especially for the ozone response. Disagreement in H2O perturbation lifetimes remains, potentially driven by differences in vertical model resolutions. Our results reaffirm that emissions from a supersonic aircraft fleet will lead to global changes in atmospheric composition, which can be reduced by adopting lower cruise altitudes and lowering NOx emissions.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

27 Feb 2025
Multi-model assessment of the atmospheric and radiative effects of supersonic transport aircraft
Jurriaan A. van 't Hoff, Didier Hauglustaine, Johannes Pletzer, Agnieszka Skowron, Volker Grewe, Sigrun Matthes, Maximilian M. Meuser, Robin N. Thor, and Irene C. Dedoussi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 2515–2550, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2515-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2515-2025, 2025
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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

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Supersonic civil aviation may return in the near future, and their emissions may lead to changes...
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