Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2792
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2792
12 Nov 2024
 | 12 Nov 2024

Impact of atmospheric turbulence on the accuracy of point source emission estimates using satellite imagery

Michał Gałkowski, Julia Marshall, Blanca Fuentes Andrade, and Christoph Gerbig

Abstract. Observation-based monitoring of the status of greenhouse gas emissions goals set at the 2015 Paris Climate Summit is critical to provide timely, accurate and precise information on the status of the progress towards these goals. Observations also permit the identification of potential deviations from the adopted policies that could compromise the efforts to reduce the future impact of pollutants on the climate.

Current remote sensing capabilities of atmospheric CO2 have demonstrated the ability to estimate emission from its strongest sources, based on imagery of single plumes combined with wind speed estimates. Realistically assessment of the accuracy and precision of the obtained emission estimates is critical, however. Here, we investigate the stochastic impact of daytime atmospheric turbulence on the estimations of CO2 emissions from a lignite coal power plant in Bełchatów, Poland, using a high-resolution (400 m x 400 m x 85 levels) atmospheric model set up in a realistic configuration. We show how the persistent structures in the emitted plumes cause significant uncertainties in retrieved fluxes when applying a commonly-used cross-sectional mass-flux method. on the order of 10 % of the total source strength. These form a significant contribution to the overall uncertainty which remains unavoidable in the presence of atmospheric turbulence.

Furthermore, the use of novel temporally-tagged tracers allowed for the decomposition of the plume variability into its constituent parts and explain why spatial scales of variability in plume intensity are far larger than the size of turbulent eddies – a finding that challenges previous assumptions.

Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. The peer-review process was guided by an independent editor, and the authors also have no other competing interests to declare.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. While Copernicus Publications makes every effort to include appropriate place names, the final responsibility lies with the authors. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.
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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

27 Oct 2025
Impact of atmospheric turbulence on the accuracy of point source emission estimates using satellite imagery
Michał Gałkowski, Julia Marshall, Blanca Fuentes Andrade, and Christoph Gerbig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 13831–13848, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-13831-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-13831-2025, 2025
Short summary
Michał Gałkowski, Julia Marshall, Blanca Fuentes Andrade, and Christoph Gerbig

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2792', Anonymous Referee #1, 06 Jan 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Michal Galkowski, 27 Jun 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2792', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 Feb 2025
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Michal Galkowski, 27 Jun 2025
  • EC1: 'Handling Editor Comment on egusphere-2024-2792', Yugo Kanaya, 05 Mar 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on EC1', Michal Galkowski, 05 Mar 2025

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2792', Anonymous Referee #1, 06 Jan 2025
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Michal Galkowski, 27 Jun 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2792', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 Feb 2025
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Michal Galkowski, 27 Jun 2025
  • EC1: 'Handling Editor Comment on egusphere-2024-2792', Yugo Kanaya, 05 Mar 2025
    • AC1: 'Reply on EC1', Michal Galkowski, 05 Mar 2025

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
AR by Michal Galkowski on behalf of the Authors (27 Jun 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (06 Jul 2025) by Yugo Kanaya
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (18 Jul 2025)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (21 Jul 2025)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (10 Aug 2025) by Yugo Kanaya
AR by Michal Galkowski on behalf of the Authors (14 Aug 2025)  Author's response   Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

27 Oct 2025
Impact of atmospheric turbulence on the accuracy of point source emission estimates using satellite imagery
Michał Gałkowski, Julia Marshall, Blanca Fuentes Andrade, and Christoph Gerbig
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 13831–13848, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-13831-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-13831-2025, 2025
Short summary
Michał Gałkowski, Julia Marshall, Blanca Fuentes Andrade, and Christoph Gerbig
Michał Gałkowski, Julia Marshall, Blanca Fuentes Andrade, and Christoph Gerbig

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Short summary
Observations of GHG emissions are needed to monitor the progress towards Paris Agreement goals. Remote sensing instruments have been used to estimate emissions from the strongest anthropogenic sources. Here, we study the impact of atmospheric turbulence on the estimation of CO2 with a realistic atmospheric model, and we show that the formation of persistent plume structures causes uncertainty on the order of 10 % of total emission that cannot be avoided.
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