Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2792
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2792
12 Nov 2024
 | 12 Nov 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).

Impact of atmospheric turbulence on the accuracy of point source emission estimates using satellite imagery

Michał Gałkowski, Julia Marshall, Blanca Fuentes Andrade, and Christoph Gerbig

Abstract. Observation-based monitoring of the status of greenhouse gas emissions goals set at the 2015 Paris Climate Summit is critical to provide timely, accurate and precise information on the status of the progress towards these goals. Observations also permit the identification of potential deviations from the adopted policies that could compromise the efforts to reduce the future impact of pollutants on the climate.

Current remote sensing capabilities of atmospheric CO2 have demonstrated the ability to estimate emission from its strongest sources, based on imagery of single plumes combined with wind speed estimates. Realistically assessment of the accuracy and precision of the obtained emission estimates is critical, however. Here, we investigate the stochastic impact of daytime atmospheric turbulence on the estimations of CO2 emissions from a lignite coal power plant in Bełchatów, Poland, using a high-resolution (400 m x 400 m x 85 levels) atmospheric model set up in a realistic configuration. We show how the persistent structures in the emitted plumes cause significant uncertainties in retrieved fluxes when applying a commonly-used cross-sectional mass-flux method. on the order of 10 % of the total source strength. These form a significant contribution to the overall uncertainty which remains unavoidable in the presence of atmospheric turbulence.

Furthermore, the use of novel temporally-tagged tracers allowed for the decomposition of the plume variability into its constituent parts and explain why spatial scales of variability in plume intensity are far larger than the size of turbulent eddies – a finding that challenges previous assumptions.

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Michał Gałkowski, Julia Marshall, Blanca Fuentes Andrade, and Christoph Gerbig

Status: open (until 24 Dec 2024)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
Michał Gałkowski, Julia Marshall, Blanca Fuentes Andrade, and Christoph Gerbig
Michał Gałkowski, Julia Marshall, Blanca Fuentes Andrade, and Christoph Gerbig

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Short summary
Observations of GHG emissions are needed to monitor the progress towards Paris Agreement goals. Remote sensing instruments have been used to estimate emissions from the strongest anthropogenic sources. Here, we study the impact of atmospheric turbulence on the estimation of CO2 with a realistic atmospheric model, and we show that the formation of persistent plume structures causes uncertainty on the order of 10 % of total emission that cannot be avoided.