Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2786
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2786
14 Oct 2024
 | 14 Oct 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Optical images reveal the role of high temperatures in triggering the 2021 Chamoli landslide

Jing Tian, Wentao Yang, Jian Fang, and Chong Xu

Abstract. The 2021 Chamoli ice-rock landslide formed a landslide-flood hazard chain by claiming 200 lives and destroying two hydroelectric power plants. The reason for this landslide has been elusive due to difficulty in retrieving reliable deformation time series before the landslide. Here we proposed a histogram-based method to reconcile deformation inconsistencies measured in different optical sensors. We find the Chamoli ice-rock deformed >80 m from 2013 to 2021 with exceptionally high deformations in summers of 2017/18, which were related to high summer temperatures. Final collapse in February 2021 is also related to high temperature. Rising temperatures weakened shear strength of the ice on the sliding plane triggering the Chamoli landslide to move. With climate warming, more similar, hard to predict ice-rock landslides in deglaciating high mountains are inevitable, posing new challenges to local communities and beyond. Optical remote sensing images provide an indispensable data in deciphering early precursors of similar hazards.

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Jing Tian, Wentao Yang, Jian Fang, and Chong Xu

Status: open (until 14 Dec 2024)

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Jing Tian, Wentao Yang, Jian Fang, and Chong Xu
Jing Tian, Wentao Yang, Jian Fang, and Chong Xu

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Short summary
Shadows in optical images will deteriorate deformation measures in the pixel offset tracking method. We proposed a simple method to correct mismatches in deformation time series between Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8. We found high temperatures accelerated the landslide deformation in summers 2017/18, because rising temperatures weakened the ice strength on the sliding plane. Climate warming will result in more similar hazard chains in deglaciating mountains.