the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Parameterisation toolbox for physical-biogeochemical model compatible with FABM. Case study: the coupled 1D GOTM-ECOSMO E2E for the Sylt-Romo Bight, North Sea
Abstract. Mathematical models serve as invaluable tool for comprehending marine ecosystems. The performance of these models is often highly dependent on their parameters. Traditionally, refining these models involved a time-intensive trial-and-error approach to identify model parameter values that are able to reproduce observations well. However, as ecosystem models grow in complexity, this approach becomes impractical. With advancements in computing power, optimization techniques have emerged as a viable alternative. Yet, these techniques often exhibit model-specific tailoring, limiting their broader application. In this study, we introduce a parameterisation toolbox founded on a Particle Swarm Optimizer (PSO) implemented in the Framework for Aquatic Biogeochemical Models (FABM), which allows its reuse between numerous existing models in FABM, and thus makes the optimizer more accessible to the community. The PSO toolbox's effectiveness is demonstrated through its implementation on a 1D physical-biogeochemical model (GOTM-ECOSMO E2E), which successfully parameterised the Sylt-Romo Bight ecosystem. The toolbox was able to identify most of the tuned parameters and to suggest potential ranges for poorly constrained parameters. In addition, the toolbox uncovers a number of parameter sets with notable differences in some parameter values, but resulting in not much difference in biomass and fluxes. Furthermore, by experimenting with optimisation models of varying complexity, the toolbox was able to define an optimal model for the Sylt-Romo Bight.
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Status: open (until 14 Dec 2024)
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2710', Anonymous Referee #1, 14 Nov 2024
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General comments:
The particle swam optimizer toolbox described in this paper represents a novel approach to the problem of parameter optimization in marine ecosystem models. The toolbox allows a range of model parameters to be constrained simultaneously. This represents a considerable advantage over tuning individual parameters or variables independently which may lead to improvements in the performance of one variable at the cost of another. The authors demonstrate the successful implementation of the particle swarm optimizer approach within a regional ecosystem. A toolbox is presented that is compatible with FABM and this will significantly aid the portability of the toolbox to other ecosystem models and will support it’s uptake by the wider ecosystem modelling community.
The advantages and disadvantages of toolbox are clearly stated in the paper. However, there are several points I feel require further discussion as listed below.
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Specific comments:
Abstract
Line 2: I would argue that several recent studies go beyond a ‘trial-and-error’ approach.
Line 10: Sentence beginning ‘The toolbox was able to…’ the tool box itself didn’t identify the parameters but defined optimal values
Introduction
Line 21: are they incomplete or not devised?
Paragraph starting line 30: Yumruktepe et al., 2023 have described a successful parameter optimization framework utilizing ARGO floats and the same (GOTM-FABM-ECOSMO) model set-up as used in this study. The PSO would potentially fit nicely within the ARGO toolbox allowing identification of a parameter set that is appropriate over larger areas without excessive computational requirements.
Paragraph starting line 46: These hypotheses are referred to again on line 169 but are not mentioned later in the paper, including in the discussion or the section on future work. Has or will the model be used to test these hypotheses?
Parameterization toolbox
Line 60: should bound be boundary?
Line 64: I find the analogy with the two boats confuses the issue - according to the current description the two boats will quickly converge close to the deepest point between them (but not at the deepest point in the lake). The description beginning on line 77 is easy to follow even for a non-mathematician, so maybe the boat analogy could be removed altogether – if kept it should be improved.
Model configuration and set up
No mention is given to the performance of GOTM in simulating the complex physical regime of the region. This is relevant as poorly constrained physics will impact the final parameter set.Â
Line 189: Was a one-year spin-up enough to achieve a stable ecosystem state?
The choice of parameter space within which parameters are allowed to vary is not discussed. Some model parameters are more tightly constrained than others (based on existing knowledge) so the size of the parameter space within which an individual parameter is allowed to vary may be parameter dependent. Are the authors sure the defined parameter spaces do not exceed meaningful ranges in each individual case?
In cases where the final optimized parameters are significantly different to the reference value some discussion may be merited. For example, looking at Figure 4, the optimal maximum growth rate for large phytoplankton is almost double the reference value. The value of 2.5 is high compared to values typically used and may lie close to the upper boundary of the defined parameter space? Can this high value be justified through consideration of the specific ecosystem processes at work in the study region? Or is there some compensation within the model (such as high growth rates balance by high grazing rates?)
In general consideration should be given to parameters which exhibit very large changes from the reference values. How does the new (optimal) parameter compare to that used in other models? And does it remain within a scientifically meaningful range? What does this say about the system being studied?
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Results and discussion
Line 264/5: Why does the model underrepresent phytoplankton biomass at other times of the year?Â
Paragraph starting on line 268: Presumably river input does not account for NO3 removal. Also why does the lack of river input not impact phosphate in the model?
The 8-year period simulated is still relatively short and does not indicate robustness over longer decadal/multidecadal periods. The robustness seen may also come at a cost – looking at Figure 5 is there some evidence that the model is tuned towards a mean state and underrepresents interannual variability?
Section 3.2Â
297: Have you defined one parameter set, within which several of the parameters can be allowed to vary within a defined range? If you have define several parameter sets which are actually different then the system dynamics cannot be identical. I feel further discussion is needed around this subject. Choosing a parameter set that achieves the right result for the wrong reasons means the parameter set is likely less portable to other locations or time frames and will also likely have implications for the representation of higher trophic levels within the model system.Â
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Conclusions
Line 327: Neither the hydrodynamic complexity or the success of GOTM in representing this has been discussed in the paper.
Line 333: It may be better to point to the doi given at the end of the paper here? At least an institutional rather than personal site is required to ensure secure long-term access.
Line 350:
I see the identification of different parameter sets as highlighting the limitation of the model and the method, care should be taken not to achieve the right results for the wrong reasons if the model is to be used to study the system dynamics. Although the possibility of defining stable parameter ranges is, however, a plus.
Figures A2 and A3: I did not understand why the black dots sometimes appear to be outside the range of the grey dots.
Other minor comments
The manuscript should be checked for typos/grammatical errors e.g.
Line 1: insert ‘an’ after ‘serve as’
Line 2: remove ‘in recent years’
Line 5: insert a comma after ‘system’ or rewrite the sentence to be clearer
Line 44: remove ‘to’ after ‘also’
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2710-RC1
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