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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2664
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2664
09 Sep 2024
 | 09 Sep 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Recent Baltic Sea Storm Surge Events From A Climate Perspective

Nikolaus Groll, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse

Abstract. Three storm surge events with return periods between 10 and 100 years have occurred in the western Baltic Sea in recent years (2017, 2019 and 2023). While in most cases such surge events are associated with high wind speeds, two of the three events occurred at relatively moderate wind speeds. The events are analysed and decomposed into the contributions from different factors, such as direct atmospheric effects or of prefilling of the Baltic Sea, which can lead to such extreme water levels. A numerical hindcast simulation is used to place the events and their contributing components into a climate perspective. While the absolute water levels were among the highest in recent decades, the individual contributions of the direct atmospheric effects as well as prefilling were not unusual for two of the three events, and it was rather a combination of water level and prefilling that caused such prominent extreme events. Although the perceived increased frequency of the events may indicate a relation to climate change, the individual contributions were within the range of climate variability observed in recent decades.

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Nikolaus Groll, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse

Status: open (until 21 Oct 2024)

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  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2664', Anonymous Referee #1, 05 Oct 2024 reply
Nikolaus Groll, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
Nikolaus Groll, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse

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Short summary
In recent years, the western Baltic Sea has experienced severe storm surges. By analysing the individual contributions and the total water level, these events can be put into a climate perspective. It was found that individual contributions were not exceptional in all events and no clear trend can be identified, often the combination of the individual contributions leads to the extreme events of recent years. This points to the importance of analysing composite events.