On the estimation of stratospheric age of air from correlations of multiple trace gases

Abstract. The stratospheric circulation is an important element in the climate system, but observational constraints are prone to significant uncertainties due to the low circulation velocities and uncertainties in available trace gas measurements. Here, we propose a method to calculate mean age of air as a measure of the circulation from observations of multiple trace gas species which are reliably measurable by satellite instruments, like trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11), dichlorodifluoromethane (CFC-12), chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-22), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF₆), and show that this method works well up to a height of about 25 km. The method is based on the compact correlations of these gases with mean age. Methodological uncertainties include effects of atmospheric variability, non-compactness of the correlation, and measurement related effects inherent for satellite instruments. The age calculation method is evaluated in a model environment and compared against the true model age. We show that combination of the six chosen species reduces the resulting uncertainty of derived mean age to below 0.3 years throughout most regions in the lower stratosphere. Even small-scale, seasonal features in the global age distribution can be reliably diagnosed. The new correlation method is further applied to trace gas measurements with the balloon borne Gimballed Limb Observer for Radiance Imaging of the Atmosphere (GLORIA-B) instrument. The corresponding deduced mean age profiles agree reliably with SF₆-based mean age below about 22 km and show significantly lower uncertainty ranges. Comparison between observation-based and model simulated mean age indicates a slow-biased circulation in the ERA5 reanalysis. Overall, the proposed mean age calculation method shows promise to substantially reduce the uncertainty in mean age estimates from satellite trace gas observations.