Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2597
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2597
20 Sep 2024
 | 20 Sep 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Occupancy history influences extinction risk of fossil marine microplankton groups

Isaiah E. Smith, Ádám T. Kocsis, and Wolfgang Kiessling

Abstract.

Geographic range has long been acknowledged as an important determinant of extinction risk. The trajectory of geographic range through time, however, has not received as much scientific attention. Here, we test the role of change in geographic range – assessed by a measure of proportional occupancy of grid cells – in determining the extinction risk in four major microplankton groups: foraminifera, calcareous nannofossils, radiolarians, and diatoms. Logistic regression was used to assess the importance of standing occupancy, occupancy change, and sampling probability in the extinction risk of species. We find that while standing occupancy is a major determinant of extinction risk in all microplankton groups, change in occupancy accounts for an average of 52 % of the explanatory power of the three analyzed variables, with a maximum value of 92 %. Sampling probability was also found to be consistently informative, with an average of 6 % and a maximum value of 22 %. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating both geographic range and its change through time, as well as sampling probability, into extinction models. The ability of occupancy trajectory to help predict extinction risk underlines the necessity of paleontological data in modern conservation efforts.

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Isaiah E. Smith, Ádám T. Kocsis, and Wolfgang Kiessling

Status: open (until 08 Nov 2024)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
Isaiah E. Smith, Ádám T. Kocsis, and Wolfgang Kiessling

Data sets

Preprint – Occupancy Trajectory Microplankton Isaiah E. Smith https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7745607

Model code and software

Preprint – Occupancy Trajectory Microplankton Isaiah E. Smith https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7745607

Isaiah E. Smith, Ádám T. Kocsis, and Wolfgang Kiessling

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Short summary
We examine how change in a species' range size over time influences that species' extinction risk. We analyze the interaction of instantaneous range size, range size change, and fossil sampling, and how these terms relate to extinction risk in marine microplankton. We find that the change in geographic range is the most informative predictor of extinction among the three examined variables. Using predictive models, we also assess extinction probability in four extant groups.