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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2491
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2491
09 Aug 2024
 | 09 Aug 2024

Earth’s future climate and its variability simulated at 9 km global resolution

Ja-Yeon Moon, Jan Streffing, Sun-Seon Lee, Tido Semmler, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Jiao Chen, Eun-Byeoul Cho, Jung-Eun Chu, Christian Franzke, Jan P. Gärtner, Rohit Ghosh, Jan Hegewald, Songyee Hong, Nikolay Koldunov, June-Yi Lee, Zihao Lin, Chao Liu, Svetlana Loza, Wonsun Park, Woncheol Roh, Dmitry V. Sein, Sahil Sharma, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jun-Hyeok Son, Malte F. Stuecker, Qiang Wang, Gyuseok Yi, Martina Zapponini, Thomas Jung, and Axel Timmermann

Abstract. Earth’s climate response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions occurs on a variety of spatial scales. To assess climate risks on regional scales and implement adaptation measures, policymakers and stakeholders often require climate change information on scales that are smaller (less than 10 km) than the typical resolution of global climate models [O (100 km)]. To close this important knowledge gap and consider the impact of small-scale processes on the global scale, we adopted a novel iterative global earth system modeling protocol. This protocol provides key information on Earth’s future climate and its variability on storm-resolving scales (less than 10 km). To this end we used the coupled Earth system model OpenIFS-FESOM2 (AWI-CM3) with a 9 km atmospheric resolution (TCo1279) and a 4–25 km ocean resolution. We conducted a 20-year 1950 control simulation and four 10-year-long coupled transient simulations for the 2000s, 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s. These simulations were initialized from the trajectory of a coarser 31 km (TCo319) SSP5-8.5 transient greenhouse warming simulation of the coupled model with the same high-resolution ocean. Similar to the coarser resolution TCo319 transient simulation, the high resolution TCo1279 simulation with SSP5-8.5 scenario exhibits a strong warming response relative to present-day conditions, reaching up to 6.5 °C by the end of the century at CO2 levels of about 1,100 ppm. The TCo1279 high resolution simulations show a substantial increase in regional information and granularity relative to the TCo319 experiment (or any other lower resolution model), especially over topographically complex terrain. Examples of enhanced regional information include projected changes in temperature, rainfall, winds, extreme events, tropical cyclones, and in the hydroclimate teleconnection patterns of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. The novel iterative modelling protocol, that facilitates storm-resolving global climate simulations for future climate time-slices, offers major benefits over regional climate models. However, but it also has some drawbacks, such as initialization shocks and resolution-dependent biases, which will be further discussed.

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Ja-Yeon Moon, Jan Streffing, Sun-Seon Lee, Tido Semmler, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Jiao Chen, Eun-Byeoul Cho, Jung-Eun Chu, Christian Franzke, Jan P. Gärtner, Rohit Ghosh, Jan Hegewald, Songyee Hong, Nikolay Koldunov, June-Yi Lee, Zihao Lin, Chao Liu, Svetlana Loza, Wonsun Park, Woncheol Roh, Dmitry V. Sein, Sahil Sharma, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jun-Hyeok Son, Malte F. Stuecker, Qiang Wang, Gyuseok Yi, Martina Zapponini, Thomas Jung, and Axel Timmermann

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2491', Anonymous Referee #1, 27 Aug 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2491', Anonymous Referee #2, 02 Sep 2024
Ja-Yeon Moon, Jan Streffing, Sun-Seon Lee, Tido Semmler, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Jiao Chen, Eun-Byeoul Cho, Jung-Eun Chu, Christian Franzke, Jan P. Gärtner, Rohit Ghosh, Jan Hegewald, Songyee Hong, Nikolay Koldunov, June-Yi Lee, Zihao Lin, Chao Liu, Svetlana Loza, Wonsun Park, Woncheol Roh, Dmitry V. Sein, Sahil Sharma, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jun-Hyeok Son, Malte F. Stuecker, Qiang Wang, Gyuseok Yi, Martina Zapponini, Thomas Jung, and Axel Timmermann

Data sets

Code and data for reproducing figures with AW-CM3 HR simulations in J.-Y. Moon et al. "Earth's Future Climate and its Variability simulated at 9 km global resolution", Climate data server of the IBS Center for Climate Physics Ja-Yeon Moon, Jan Streffing, Sun-Seon Lee, Tido Semmler, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Jiao Chen, Eun-Byeoul Cho, Jung-Eun Chu, Christian Franzke, Jan P. Gärtner, Rohit Ghosh, Jan Hegewald, Songyee Hong, Nikolay Koldunov, June-Yi Lee, Zihao Lin, Chao Liu, Svetlana Loza, Wonsun Park, Woncheol Roh, Dmitry V. Sein, Sahil Sharma, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jun-Hyeok Son, Malte F. Stuecker, Qiang Wang, Gyuseok Yi, Martina Zapponini, Thomas Jung, and Axel Timmermann http://doi.org/10.22741/ICCP.20240001

Video supplement

Supplementary videos with AW-CM3 HR simulations in J.-Y. Moon et al. "Earth's Future Climate and its Variability simulated at 9 km global resolution" Climate data server of the IBS Center for Climate Physics, Ja-Yeon Moon, Jan Streffing, Sun-Seon Lee, Tido Semmler, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Jiao Chen, Eun-Byeoul Cho, Jung-Eun Chu, Christian Franzke, Jan P. Gärtner, Rohit Ghosh, Jan Hegewald, Songyee Hong, Nikolay Koldunov, June-Yi Lee, Zihao Lin, Chao Liu, Svetlana Loza, Wonsun Park, Woncheol Roh, Dmitry V. Sein, Sahil Sharma, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jun-Hyeok Son, Malte F. Stuecker, Qiang Wang, Gyuseok Yi, Martina Zapponini, Thomas Jung, and Axel Timmermann http://doi.org/10.22741/ICCP.20240002

Ja-Yeon Moon, Jan Streffing, Sun-Seon Lee, Tido Semmler, Miguel Andrés-Martínez, Jiao Chen, Eun-Byeoul Cho, Jung-Eun Chu, Christian Franzke, Jan P. Gärtner, Rohit Ghosh, Jan Hegewald, Songyee Hong, Nikolay Koldunov, June-Yi Lee, Zihao Lin, Chao Liu, Svetlana Loza, Wonsun Park, Woncheol Roh, Dmitry V. Sein, Sahil Sharma, Dmitry Sidorenko, Jun-Hyeok Son, Malte F. Stuecker, Qiang Wang, Gyuseok Yi, Martina Zapponini, Thomas Jung, and Axel Timmermann

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Short summary
Based on a series of storm-resolving greenhouse warming simulations conducted with the AWI-CM3 model at 9 km global atmosphere, 4–25 km ocean resolution, we present new projections of regional climate change, modes of climate variability and extreme events. The 10-year-long high resolution simulations for the 2000s, 2030s, 2060s, 2090s were initialized from a coarser resolution transient run (31 km atmosphere) which follows the SSP5-8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenario from 1950–2100 CE.