Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2358
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2358
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
23 Sep 2024
| 23 Sep 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.
Brief Communication: Sensitivity of Antarctic ice-shelf melting to ocean warming across basal melt models
Abstract. The uncertain sensitivity of Antarctic ice-shelf basal melt to ocean warming strongly contributes to uncertainties in sea-level projections. Here, we explore the response of five dedicated basal melt models to an idealised sub-thermocline 1 °C warming and find a large intermodel spread with total melt increases between 67 % and 240 %. For deep regions of presentlyfast-melting ice shelves, this spread can reach two orders of magnitude. We conclude that a consistent calibration on present-conditions does not guarantee consistent melt sensitivities and that diversity in basal melt forcing is presently unavoidable to prevent underestimating uncertainties in future projections.
How to cite. Lambert, E. and Burgard, C.: Brief Communication: Sensitivity of Antarctic ice-shelf melting to ocean warming across basal melt models, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2358, 2024.
Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Download & links
Download & links
- Preprint
(6055 KB) - Metadata XML
- BibTeX
- EndNote
Status: open (until 09 Nov 2024)
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
| : Report abuse
Viewed
Total article views: 141 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Cumulative views and downloads
(calculated since 23 Sep 2024)
| HTML | XML | Total | BibTeX | EndNote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 32 | 4 | 141 | 2 | 1 |
- HTML: 105
- PDF: 32
- XML: 4
- Total: 141
- BibTeX: 2
- EndNote: 1
Viewed (geographical distribution)
Total article views: 104 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
Thereof 104 with geography defined
and 0 with unknown origin.
| Country | # | Views | % |
|---|
| Total: | 0 |
| HTML: | 0 |
| PDF: | 0 |
| XML: | 0 |
- 1
1
Latest update: 05 Oct 2024
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Utrechtseweg 297, 3731 GA, De Bilt, The Netherlands
Clara Burgard
Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France
IGE, Univ. Grenoble Alpes, IRD/CNRS/INRAE/Grenoble INP, Grenoble, France
Short summary
The effect of ocean warming on Antarctic ice sheet melting is a major source of uncertainty in estimates of future sea-level rise. We compare five melt models to show that ocean warming strongly increases melting. Despite their calibration on present-day melting, the models disagree on the amount of melt increase. In some important regions, the difference reaches a factor 100. We conclude that using various melt models is important to accurately estimate uncertainties in future sea-level rise.
The effect of ocean warming on Antarctic ice sheet melting is a major source of uncertainty in...