Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2358
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2358
23 Sep 2024
 | 23 Sep 2024

Brief Communication: Sensitivity of Antarctic ice-shelf melting to ocean warming across basal melt models

Erwin Lambert and Clara Burgard

Abstract. The uncertain sensitivity of Antarctic ice-shelf basal melt to ocean warming strongly contributes to uncertainties in sea-level projections. Here, we explore the response of five dedicated basal melt models to an idealised sub-thermocline 1 °C warming and find a large intermodel spread with total melt increases between 67 % and 240 %. For deep regions of presentlyfast-melting ice shelves, this spread can reach two orders of magnitude. We conclude that a consistent calibration on present-conditions does not guarantee consistent melt sensitivities and that diversity in basal melt forcing is presently unavoidable to prevent underestimating uncertainties in future projections.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Erwin Lambert and Clara Burgard

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2358', Anonymous Referee #1, 24 Oct 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Erwin Lambert, 05 Dec 2024
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC1 - proper', Erwin Lambert, 05 Dec 2024
    • AC5: 'Reply on RC1 - now really the proper version', Erwin Lambert, 05 Dec 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2358', Anonymous Referee #2, 11 Nov 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Erwin Lambert, 05 Dec 2024
    • AC4: 'Reply on RC2 - proper', Erwin Lambert, 05 Dec 2024
    • AC6: 'Reply on RC2', Erwin Lambert, 05 Dec 2024
Erwin Lambert and Clara Burgard
Erwin Lambert and Clara Burgard

Viewed

Total article views: 347 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
238 93 16 347 5 4
  • HTML: 238
  • PDF: 93
  • XML: 16
  • Total: 347
  • BibTeX: 5
  • EndNote: 4
Views and downloads (calculated since 23 Sep 2024)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 23 Sep 2024)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 301 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 301 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 13 Dec 2024
Download
Short summary
The effect of ocean warming on Antarctic ice sheet melting is a major source of uncertainty in estimates of future sea-level rise. We compare five melt models to show that ocean warming strongly increases melting. Despite their calibration on present-day melting, the models disagree on the amount of melt increase. In some important regions, the difference reaches a factor 100. We conclude that using various melt models is important to accurately estimate uncertainties in future sea-level rise.