Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2358
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2358
23 Sep 2024
 | 23 Sep 2024

Brief Communication: Sensitivity of Antarctic ice-shelf melting to ocean warming across basal melt models

Erwin Lambert and Clara Burgard

Abstract. The uncertain sensitivity of Antarctic ice-shelf basal melt to ocean warming strongly contributes to uncertainties in sea-level projections. Here, we explore the response of five dedicated basal melt models to an idealised sub-thermocline 1 °C warming and find a large intermodel spread with total melt increases between 67 % and 240 %. For deep regions of presentlyfast-melting ice shelves, this spread can reach two orders of magnitude. We conclude that a consistent calibration on present-conditions does not guarantee consistent melt sensitivities and that diversity in basal melt forcing is presently unavoidable to prevent underestimating uncertainties in future projections.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

11 Jul 2025
Brief communication: Sensitivity of Antarctic ice shelf melting to ocean warming across basal melt models
Erwin Lambert and Clara Burgard
The Cryosphere, 19, 2495–2505, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2495-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2495-2025, 2025
Short summary
Erwin Lambert and Clara Burgard

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2358', Anonymous Referee #1, 24 Oct 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Erwin Lambert, 05 Dec 2024
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC1 - proper', Erwin Lambert, 05 Dec 2024
    • AC5: 'Reply on RC1 - now really the proper version', Erwin Lambert, 05 Dec 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2358', Anonymous Referee #2, 11 Nov 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Erwin Lambert, 05 Dec 2024
    • AC4: 'Reply on RC2 - proper', Erwin Lambert, 05 Dec 2024
    • AC6: 'Reply on RC2', Erwin Lambert, 05 Dec 2024

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2358', Anonymous Referee #1, 24 Oct 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Erwin Lambert, 05 Dec 2024
    • AC3: 'Reply on RC1 - proper', Erwin Lambert, 05 Dec 2024
    • AC5: 'Reply on RC1 - now really the proper version', Erwin Lambert, 05 Dec 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2358', Anonymous Referee #2, 11 Nov 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Erwin Lambert, 05 Dec 2024
    • AC4: 'Reply on RC2 - proper', Erwin Lambert, 05 Dec 2024
    • AC6: 'Reply on RC2', Erwin Lambert, 05 Dec 2024

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to revisions (further review by editor and referees) (01 Jan 2025) by Kerim Nisancioglu
AR by Erwin Lambert on behalf of the Authors (06 Jan 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (17 Jan 2025) by Kerim Nisancioglu
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (03 Feb 2025)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (07 Mar 2025)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (15 Apr 2025) by Kerim Nisancioglu
AR by Erwin Lambert on behalf of the Authors (16 Apr 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (28 Apr 2025) by Kerim Nisancioglu
AR by Erwin Lambert on behalf of the Authors (01 May 2025)  Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

11 Jul 2025
Brief communication: Sensitivity of Antarctic ice shelf melting to ocean warming across basal melt models
Erwin Lambert and Clara Burgard
The Cryosphere, 19, 2495–2505, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2495-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-2495-2025, 2025
Short summary
Erwin Lambert and Clara Burgard
Erwin Lambert and Clara Burgard

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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
The effect of ocean warming on Antarctic ice sheet melting is a major source of uncertainty in estimates of future sea-level rise. We compare five melt models to show that ocean warming strongly increases melting. Despite their calibration on present-day melting, the models disagree on the amount of melt increase. In some important regions, the difference reaches a factor 100. We conclude that using various melt models is important to accurately estimate uncertainties in future sea-level rise.
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