User-Validated Drought Vulnerability Factors in Forested Cold Climates: Multi-Sectoral Perspectives from Sweden

Abstract. There is a global call for proactive drought risk management, stressing the need to further our understanding of the systemic nature of drought risk. Proactive drought risk management requires not only an understanding of the drought hazard itself, but also of the underlying vulnerabilities in socio-hydrological systems. As a result, drought vulnerability assessments are increasingly conducted across the globe. However, drought vulnerability is complex and shaped by the social, ecological and hydroclimatic context. Thus, understanding how vulnerability is manifested depending on regional, sectoral or societal differences is crucial. Yet, a detailed overview of drought vulnerability factors relevant for socio-hydrological systems in specific climate regions and ecozones, is currently lacking. Therefore, a first ever attempt was made to identify user-validated drought vulnerability factors, relevant for water-dependent sectors and societies in forested cold climates. User-validation was performed through an online survey conducted in Sweden, Northern Europe, targeting stakeholders from seven water dependent sectors, working in authorities, private and public enterprises, NGOs and trade associations. Respondents were asked to rate a comprehensive list of vulnerability factors, connected to sectoral and societal vulnerability as well as governance, based on their impact on drought risk in their sector as well as for society as a whole. The study successfully identified several relevant drought vulnerability factors for the climate region, as well as the relative impact of each vulnerability factor on drought risk in sectors as well as society. Results showed that the relevance and impact of individual vulnerability factors differed for different sectors, where the forestry sector especially stands out compared to other sectors. Furthermore, the results indicate regional differences in societal vulnerability factors. The substantial list of vulnerability factors found to be relevant by the respondents, demonstrate the complex nature of drought risk, as well as the importance of adopting cautiousness when selecting generic vulnerability factors for applied vulnerability assessments. Furthermore, the results provide a comprehensive guide to both sectoral and societal drought vulnerability in socio-hydrological systems located in forested cold climates.