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https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1771
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1771
15 Jul 2024
 | 15 Jul 2024

Pollen-based climatic reconstructions for the interglacial analogues of MIS 1 (MIS 19, 11 and 5) in the Southwestern Mediterranean: insights from ODP Site 976

Dael Sassoon, Nathalie Combourieu-Nebout, Odile Peyron, Adele Bertini, Francesco Toti, Vincent Lebreton, and Marie-Hélène Moncel

Abstract. Pleistocene interglacials, specifically MIS 19, 11 and 5, have been suggested as analogues of MIS 1 due to similar solar forcing patterns, greenhouse gas concentrations and sea levels. There has been substantial debate regarding which of these is the most suitable analogue and so far there has been no consensus, although what really emerges from recent work is the high variation in regional climate during these periods. One of the limiting factors in our understanding of these potential analogues is the fact that very few long-sequences cover the entire duration of these interglacials at high resolution.

In this study, a multi-method approach is used to produce climatic reconstructions for MIS 19, 11, 5 and 1, using pollen data derived from a single long marine core from ODP Site 976. This represents the first study which attempts to use pollen-based climatic reconstructions to compare MIS 1 with its analogues, representing a necessary contribution to the debate with a focus on the relationships between vegetation and climate in the southwestern Mediterranean.

Three methods of quantitative climate reconstruction have been adopted: the more widely used methods Modern Analogues Technique (MAT) and Weighted Average Partial Least Squares regression (WA-PLS), and a more recent machine-learning method known as Boosted Regression Trees (BRT). The reconstructions show consistent changes in temperature and precipitation during MIS 19, 11, 5 and 1, which correlate well with climatic changes observed in other regional and global proxies, and highlight distinct climatic characteristics of each interglacial period in the southwestern Mediterranean. MIS 19 exhibits high variability and colder temperatures compared to subsequent interglacials and the MIS 1. Conversely, MIS 11 displays warmer temperatures and greater stability, which makes it a useful analogue to understand prolonged interglacials, crucial considering the anthropogenic impacts on the duration of warm climate during the Holocene. MIS 5 exhibits overall warmer conditions, and its higher temperature coupled with fluctuations in solar forcing makes it a less suitable MIS 1 analogue.

Although past interglacials do not offer direct predictions for the Holocene's future, they provide essential insights into Earth's responses to various forcing factors, serving as crucial benchmarks for understanding the Mediterranean's sensitivity to global changes.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Dael Sassoon, Nathalie Combourieu-Nebout, Odile Peyron, Adele Bertini, Francesco Toti, Vincent Lebreton, and Marie-Hélène Moncel

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1771', Anonymous Referee #1, 29 Aug 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Dael Sassoon, 25 Oct 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1771', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 Sep 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Dael Sassoon, 25 Oct 2024

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1771', Anonymous Referee #1, 29 Aug 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Dael Sassoon, 25 Oct 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1771', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 Sep 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Dael Sassoon, 25 Oct 2024
Dael Sassoon, Nathalie Combourieu-Nebout, Odile Peyron, Adele Bertini, Francesco Toti, Vincent Lebreton, and Marie-Hélène Moncel

Data sets

Quantitative pollen-based climatic reconstructions for MIS 19, 11, 5 and 1 from marine core ODP Site 976 Dael Sassoon https://data.mendeley.com/datasets/m4kzgwk6b9/1

Dael Sassoon, Nathalie Combourieu-Nebout, Odile Peyron, Adele Bertini, Francesco Toti, Vincent Lebreton, and Marie-Hélène Moncel

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Short summary
Comparisons of climatic reconstructions of past interglacials MIS 19, 11, 5 with the current interglacial (MIS 1) based on pollen data from a marine core (Alboran Sea) show that, compared with MIS 1, MIS 19 was colder and highly variable, MIS 11 was longer and more stable, and MIS 5 was warmer. While there is no real equivalent to the current interglacial, past interglacials give insights into the sensitivity of the SW Mediterranean to global climatic changes during conditions similar to MIS 1.