Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1640
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1640
01 Jul 2024
 | 01 Jul 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Developing an integrated assessment model to explore optimal cost-benefit paths for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios

Xuanming Su, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Tokuta Yokohata, Katsumasa Tanaka, Shinichiro Fujimori, Jun'ya Takakura, Rintaro Yamaguchi, and Weiwei Xiong

Abstract. Most recent cost-benefit Integrated Assessment Models have used only one reference scenario and focused on reducing mainly CO2 emissions. This goal may not adequately account for the uncertainties arising from diverse socioeconomic developments and the potential for mitigating the effects of emissions of individual greenhouse gases, aerosols, and pollutants. We developed an Integrated Assessment Model framework by combining a socioeconomic module with a reduced-complexity climate module. We represented the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios by 1) calculating a new set of marginal abatement cost curves based on the most recent integrated assessment model, 2) creating a new SSP-dependent damage function based on process-based impact simulation results, and 3) extending the evaluation time to the year 2450. The cost-benefit analysis revealed that the SSP scenarios achieved various rates of control for emissions of individual greenhouse gases, aerosols, and pollutants. The result was diverse patterns of optimal temperatures, including maximum temperature achieved and stabilized temperature by the end of the evaluation period. The model simulations showed the importance of distinguishing options for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases based on distinct socioeconomic growth scenarios. We also show an example of a long-term socioeconomic projection spanning several centuries as well as a variety of socioeconomic assumptions for assessing climate change policies with long-term consequences.

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Xuanming Su, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Tokuta Yokohata, Katsumasa Tanaka, Shinichiro Fujimori, Jun'ya Takakura, Rintaro Yamaguchi, and Weiwei Xiong

Status: open (until 26 Aug 2024)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CEC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1640', Astrid Kerkweg, 15 Jul 2024 reply
    • AC1: 'Reply on CEC1', Xuanming Su, 17 Jul 2024 reply
Xuanming Su, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Tokuta Yokohata, Katsumasa Tanaka, Shinichiro Fujimori, Jun'ya Takakura, Rintaro Yamaguchi, and Weiwei Xiong
Xuanming Su, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Tokuta Yokohata, Katsumasa Tanaka, Shinichiro Fujimori, Jun'ya Takakura, Rintaro Yamaguchi, and Weiwei Xiong

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Short summary
We created a new model combining socioeconomic data and climate projections. Using multiple future scenarios, we calculated new costs for reducing emissions, estimated damage based on the latest impacts, and extended our analysis to the year 2450. Our results show different ways to control emissions and their effects on future temperatures. This highlights the importance of adapting climate policies to different economic growth scenarios for better long-term planning.