Analysis of sea ice deformation and influencing factors in the western Arctic from 2022 to 2023

Abstract. Sea ice governs the global climate, safeguards ecological equilibrium in polar regions, and influences ocean circulation; however, the factors impacting the spatial characteristics of sea ice deformation have not been comprehensively analyzed. This study examined the effects of wind speed, air temperature (T2m), and sea ice thickness on the variation in sea ice deformation within the western Arctic based on the Lagrangian diffusion theory using buoy data from March 2022 to March 2023. The total sea ice deformation gradually declined in all seasons except for the melting season, especially in the fall and winter. Owing to the ongoing sea ice consolidation, the average total deformation was lower in the fall and winter than in the spring. The total deformation of sea ice diminished as the spatial scale increased. As sea ice is thinner on average in spring, geostrophic winds are the primary factor influencing the spatial characteristics of sea ice deformation. In contrast, the larger average ice thickness in fall and winter reduces the significance of the external force, and T2m/sea ice thickness is the primary factor influencing the spatial characteristics of sea ice deformation. Our multivariate nonlinear regression model effectively predicted the total sea ice deformation. This study provides a scientific basis for climate change research, sea ice change prediction, climate model validation, resource management, and environmental protection.