Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1518
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1518
26 Jun 2024
 | 26 Jun 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Monitoring and benchmarking Earth system model simulations with ESMValTool v2.12.0

Axel Lauer, Lisa Bock, Birgit Hassler, Patrick Jöckel, Lukas Ruhe, and Manuel Schlund

Abstract. Earth system models (ESMs) are important tools to improve our understanding of present-day climate and to project climate change under different plausible future scenarios. For this, ESMs are continuously improved and extended resulting in more complex models. Particularly during the model development phase, it is important to continuously monitor how well the historical climate is reproduced and to systematically analyze, evaluate, understand, and document possible shortcomings. For this, putting model biases relative to observations into the context of deviations shown by other state-of-the-art models greatly helps to assess which biases need to be addressed with higher priority. Here, we introduce the new capability of the open-source community-developed Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) to monitor running or benchmark existing simulations with observations in the context of results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). To benchmark model output, ESMValTool calculates metrics such as the root-mean-square error, the Pearson correlation coefficient, or the Earth mover’s distance relative to reference datasets. This is directly compared to the same metric calculated for an ensemble of models such as the one provided by CMIP6, which provides a statistical measure for the range of values that can be considered typical for state-of-the-art ESMs. Results are displayed in different types of plots such as map plots or time series with different techniques such as stippling (maps) or shading (time series) used to visualize the typical range of values for a given metric from the model ensemble used for comparison. Automatic downloading of CMIP results from the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) makes application of ESMValTool for benchmarking of individual model simulations, for example in preparation of CMIP7, easy and very user friendly.

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Axel Lauer, Lisa Bock, Birgit Hassler, Patrick Jöckel, Lukas Ruhe, and Manuel Schlund

Status: open (until 21 Aug 2024)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1518', Anonymous Referee #1, 16 Jul 2024 reply
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1518', Anonymous Referee #2, 22 Jul 2024 reply
Axel Lauer, Lisa Bock, Birgit Hassler, Patrick Jöckel, Lukas Ruhe, and Manuel Schlund
Axel Lauer, Lisa Bock, Birgit Hassler, Patrick Jöckel, Lukas Ruhe, and Manuel Schlund

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Short summary
Earth system models are important tools to improve our understanding of current climate and to project climate change. For this, it is crucial to understand possible shortcomings in the models. New features of the software package ESMValTool allow for comparing and visualizing a model's performance in reproducing observations within the context of other climate models in an easy and user-friendly way. The aim is to help model developers to assess and monitor climate simulations more efficiently.