Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1506
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1506
11 Jun 2024
 | 11 Jun 2024

Temporal dynamic vulnerability – Impact of antecedent events on residential building losses to wind storm events in Germany

Andreas Trojand, Henning Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich

Abstract. Severe winter storm events are one of Central Europe's most damaging natural hazards, therefore particularly in focus for disaster risk management. One key factor for risk is vulnerability. Risk assessments often assume vulnerability as constant. This is, however, not always a justifiable assumption. This work seeks and quantifies a potential dynamic of vulnerability for residential buildings in Germany. A likely factor affecting the dynamics of vulnerability is the hazard itself. As an extreme events may destroy the most vulnerable elements, it is likely that the subsequent rebuilding or repair will reduce their vulnerability for following events. Therefore, the intensity of the previous events and the resulting damage can be assumed to be a decisive factor in changing vulnerability. A second important factor is the time period between the previous and current event. If the next event occurs during the reconstruction phase, vulnerability might be higher than when the reconstruction phase is completed.

We analyze the role of previous storm events for the vulnerability of residential buildings. For this purpose, generalized additive models are implemented to estimate vulnerability as a function of the intensity of the previous event and the time interval between the events. The damage is extracted from a 23-year-long data set of the daily storm and hail losses for insured residential buildings in Germany on the administrative district level provided by the German Insurance Association, and the hazard component is described by the daily maximum wind load calculated from the ERA5 reanalysis. The results show a negative relationship between the previous event's intensity and the current event's damage. The duration between two events shows a significant reduction of the damage for events occurring one or more winter seasons ago compared to events occurring within the same season. On a daily scale, the first five to ten days are especially crucial for vulnerability reduction.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Andreas Trojand, Henning Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1506', Tristian Stolte, 22 Aug 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1506', Anonymous Referee #2, 08 Oct 2024
Andreas Trojand, Henning Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Andreas Trojand, Henning Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich

Viewed

Total article views: 323 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
207 78 38 323 19 17
  • HTML: 207
  • PDF: 78
  • XML: 38
  • Total: 323
  • BibTeX: 19
  • EndNote: 17
Views and downloads (calculated since 11 Jun 2024)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 11 Jun 2024)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 328 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 328 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 06 Dec 2024
Download
Short summary
The study investigates how the intensity of previous windstorm events and the time between two events affect the vulnerability of residential buildings in Germany. By analyzing 23 years of data, it was found that higher intensity of previous events generally reduces vulnerability in subsequent storms, while shorter intervals between events increase vulnerability. The results emphasize the approach of considering vulnerability in risk assessments as temporal dynamic.