Preprints
https://doi.org/10.31223/X5B117
https://doi.org/10.31223/X5B117
17 Jul 2024
 | 17 Jul 2024

Bayesian reconstruction of sea-level and hydroclimates from coastal landform inversion

Gino de Gelder, Navid Hedjazian, Laurent Husson, Thomas Bodin, Anne-Morwenn Pastier, Yannick Boucharat, Kevin Pedoja, Tubagus Solihuddin, and Sri Yudawati Cahyarini

Abstract. Quantifying Quaternary sea-level changes and hydroclimatic conditions is an important challenge given their intricate relation with paleo-climate, ice-sheets and geodynamics. The world’s coastlines provide an enormous geomorphologic archive, from which forward landscape evolution modelling studies have shown their potential to unravel paleo sea-levels, albeit at the cost of assumptions to the genesis of these landforms. We take a next step, by applying a Bayesian approach to jointly invert the geometries of multiple coastal terrace sequences to paleo sea- and lake level variations and extract past hydroclimatic conditions. Using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling method, we first test our approach on synthetic marine terrace profiles as proof of concept and benchmark our model on an observed marine terrace sequence in Santa Cruz (US). We successfully reproduce observed sequence morphologies and simultaneously obtain probabilistic estimates for past sea-level variations, as well as for other model parameters such as uplift and erosion rates. When applied to the semi-isolated Gulf of Corinth (Greece), our method allows to decipher the geomorphic Rosetta stone at an unprecedented resolution, revealing the connectivity between the Lake/Gulf of Corinth and the open sea for different hydroclimatic conditions. Eustatic sea-level and changing sill depths drive marine and transitional phases during interglacial and interstadial periods, whereas wetter and drier hydroclimates respectively over- and under-fill Lake Corinth during interstadial and glacial periods.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

24 Sep 2025
Bayesian reconstruction of sea level and hydroclimates from coastal landform inversion: application to Santa Cruz (US) and Gulf of Corinth
Gino de Gelder, Navid Hedjazian, Laurent Husson, Thomas Bodin, Anne-Morwenn Pastier, Yannick Boucharat, Kevin Pedoja, Tubagus Solihuddin, and Sri Yudawati Cahyarini
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 941–958, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-941-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-941-2025, 2025
Short summary
Gino de Gelder, Navid Hedjazian, Laurent Husson, Thomas Bodin, Anne-Morwenn Pastier, Yannick Boucharat, Kevin Pedoja, Tubagus Solihuddin, and Sri Yudawati Cahyarini

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1471', Anonymous Referee #1, 23 Jul 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Gino de Gelder, 31 Jan 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1471', Anonymous Referee #2, 28 Aug 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Gino de Gelder, 31 Jan 2025

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1471', Anonymous Referee #1, 23 Jul 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Gino de Gelder, 31 Jan 2025
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1471', Anonymous Referee #2, 28 Aug 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Gino de Gelder, 31 Jan 2025

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
AR by Gino de Gelder on behalf of the Authors (31 Jan 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes 
EF by Katja Gänger (03 Feb 2025)  Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (03 Feb 2025) by Richard Gloaguen
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (19 Feb 2025)
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (06 Mar 2025)
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (06 Mar 2025) by Richard Gloaguen
AR by Gino de Gelder on behalf of the Authors (12 May 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (13 May 2025) by Richard Gloaguen
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (09 Jun 2025)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (18 Jun 2025) by Richard Gloaguen
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (30 Jun 2025) by Tom Coulthard (Editor)
AR by Gino de Gelder on behalf of the Authors (08 Jul 2025)  Author's response   Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

24 Sep 2025
Bayesian reconstruction of sea level and hydroclimates from coastal landform inversion: application to Santa Cruz (US) and Gulf of Corinth
Gino de Gelder, Navid Hedjazian, Laurent Husson, Thomas Bodin, Anne-Morwenn Pastier, Yannick Boucharat, Kevin Pedoja, Tubagus Solihuddin, and Sri Yudawati Cahyarini
Earth Surf. Dynam., 13, 941–958, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-941-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-13-941-2025, 2025
Short summary
Gino de Gelder, Navid Hedjazian, Laurent Husson, Thomas Bodin, Anne-Morwenn Pastier, Yannick Boucharat, Kevin Pedoja, Tubagus Solihuddin, and Sri Yudawati Cahyarini
Gino de Gelder, Navid Hedjazian, Laurent Husson, Thomas Bodin, Anne-Morwenn Pastier, Yannick Boucharat, Kevin Pedoja, Tubagus Solihuddin, and Sri Yudawati Cahyarini

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Short summary
Marine terrace sequences – staircase-shaped coastal landforms – record sea-level changes, vertical motions and erosional processes that are difficult to untangle. To do so we developed a numerical inversion approach: using the observed landscape as input, we constrain the ensemble of parameter ranges that could have created this landscape. We apply the model to marine terrace sequences in Santa Cruz (US) and Corinth (Greece) to reveal past sea/lake levels, uplift rates and hydro-climates.
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