Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1468
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1468
30 May 2024
 | 30 May 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

AdriE: a high-resolution ocean model ensemble for the Adriatic Sea under severe climate change conditions

Davide Bonaldo, Sandro Carniel, Renato R. Colucci, Cléa Denamiel, Petra Pranic, Fabio Raicich, Antonio Ricchi, Lorenzo Sangelantoni, Ivica Vilibic, and Maria Letizia Vitelletti

Abstract. With its complex and peculiar meteo-oceanographic dynamics and the coexistence of diverse socio-economic activities and pressures with outstanding cultural heritage and environmental assets, the Adriatic basin (Mediterranean Sea) has traditionally been considered as a natural laboratory for marine science in its broadest meaning. In recent years the intensification of the effects of climate change, together with the increasing awareness of its possible consequences and of the knowledge gaps hampering a long-term response, have opened new questions and reframed most of the existing ones into a multi-decadal time scale. In this perspective, a description of the possible evolution of the physical oceanographic processes is the baseline for addressing the multi-disciplinary challenges set by climate change, but up to now it has not been possible to combine for this basin a sufficiently high resolution in the process description with an estimate of the uncertainty associated with the predictions. This work presents an end-of-century, kilometre-scale ensemble modelling approach for the description of ocean processes in the Adriatic Sea. Addressing 3-D circulation and thermohaline dynamics within the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS), the ensemble consists of six climate runs encompassing the period from 1987 to 2100 in a severe RCP8.5 scenario forced by the SMHI-RCA4 Regional Climate Model, driven by as many different CMIP5 General Climate Models made available within the EURO-CORDEX Initiative. The climate ensemble is flanked by a dedicated evaluation run for the 1987–2010 period, in which SMHI-RCA4 has been driven by reanalysis fields approximating the better available boundary conditions, thus isolating the intrinsic sources of uncertainty of the RCA4-ROMS modelling chain. In order to allow a direct comparison, the assessment of the model skills in the evaluation run borrows, as far as possible, data and approaches used for the evaluation of a recent kilometre-scale, multi-decadal modelling effort for this region. The model performances are mostly aligned with the state-of-art reference, with particularly encouraging results in terms of description of Marine Heat Waves and Cold Spells. Future projections suggest an increase in temperature and salinity at upper and intermediate depths, resulting in an overall decrease in water density and possibly in deep ventilation rates. Projected variations are stronger in summer and autumn, and in these seasons the ensemble range is larger than the spatial variability of the quantities and occasionally comparable with the intensity of the climate signal, highlighting the importance of an ensemble approach to treat the climate variability at this time scale. Monthly averages of the main quantities are available for each run on a dedicated Zenodo repository, and subsets of the full modelling dataset can be requested to the corresponding author.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Davide Bonaldo, Sandro Carniel, Renato R. Colucci, Cléa Denamiel, Petra Pranic, Fabio Raicich, Antonio Ricchi, Lorenzo Sangelantoni, Ivica Vilibic, and Maria Letizia Vitelletti

Status: open (until 25 Jul 2024)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
Davide Bonaldo, Sandro Carniel, Renato R. Colucci, Cléa Denamiel, Petra Pranic, Fabio Raicich, Antonio Ricchi, Lorenzo Sangelantoni, Ivica Vilibic, and Maria Letizia Vitelletti

Data sets

AdriE ocean climate model ensemble for the Adriatic Sea - monthly fields D. Bonaldo et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11202265

Davide Bonaldo, Sandro Carniel, Renato R. Colucci, Cléa Denamiel, Petra Pranic, Fabio Raicich, Antonio Ricchi, Lorenzo Sangelantoni, Ivica Vilibic, and Maria Letizia Vitelletti

Viewed

Total article views: 83 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
65 14 4 83 5 7
  • HTML: 65
  • PDF: 14
  • XML: 4
  • Total: 83
  • BibTeX: 5
  • EndNote: 7
Views and downloads (calculated since 30 May 2024)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 30 May 2024)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 101 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 101 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 12 Jun 2024
Download
Short summary
We present a high-resolution modelling effort to investigate the possible end-of-century evolution of the main physical processes in the Adriatic Sea in a severe climate change scenario, with an ensemble approach (viz., use a of multiple simulations) allowing to control the uncertainty of the predictions. Our model exhibits a satisfactory capability to reproduce the recent past and provides a ground for a set of multidisciplinary studies in this area over a multi-decadal horizon.