Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1437
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1437
02 Jul 2024
 | 02 Jul 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Modeling of PAHs From Global to Regional Scales: Model Development and Investigation of Health Risks from 2013 to 2018 in China

Zichen Wu, Xueshun Chen, Zifa Wang, Huansheng Chen, Zhe Wang, Qing Mu, Lin Wu, Wending Wang, Xiao Tang, Jie Li, Ying Li, Qizhong Wu, Yang Wang, Zhiyin Zou, and Zijian Jiang

Abstract. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) significantly impact human health due to their persistence, toxicity, and potential carcinogenicity. Their global distribution and regional changes caused by emission changes, especially over areas in developing countries, remain to be understood along with their health impacts. This study implemented a PAH module in the global-regional nested Atmospheric Aerosol and Chemistry Model (IAP-AACM) to investigate the global distribution of PAHs and the change in their health risks from 2013 to 2018 in China. An evaluation against observations showed that the model could capture well the spatial distribution and seasonal variation of Benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), the typical indicator species of PAHs. At a global scale, the annual mean concentrations are highest in China, followed by Europe and India, with high values exceeding the target values of 1 ng m-3 over some areas. Compared with 2013, the concentration of BaP in China decreased in 2018 due to emission reductions, whereas it increased in India and Southern Africa. However, the decline is much smaller than for PM2.5 during the same period. The concentration of BaP decreased by 8.5 % in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) and 9.4 % in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD). It even increased over areas in the Sichuan Basin due to changes in meteorological conditions. The total incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) posed by BaP only showed a slight decrease in 2018 and the population in East China still faced significant potential health risks. The results indicate that strict additional control measures should be taken to reduce the pollution and health risks of PAHs effectively. The study also highlights the importance of considering changes in meteorological conditions when evaluating emission changes from concentration monitoring.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Zichen Wu, Xueshun Chen, Zifa Wang, Huansheng Chen, Zhe Wang, Qing Mu, Lin Wu, Wending Wang, Xiao Tang, Jie Li, Ying Li, Qizhong Wu, Yang Wang, Zhiyin Zou, and Zijian Jiang

Status: open (until 27 Aug 2024)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CEC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1437', Astrid Kerkweg, 15 Jul 2024 reply
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1437', Anonymous Referee #1, 17 Jul 2024 reply
Zichen Wu, Xueshun Chen, Zifa Wang, Huansheng Chen, Zhe Wang, Qing Mu, Lin Wu, Wending Wang, Xiao Tang, Jie Li, Ying Li, Qizhong Wu, Yang Wang, Zhiyin Zou, and Zijian Jiang

Data sets

Results and Validation of Global-Regional Nested model for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons Zichen Wu, Xueshun Chen, and Zifa Wang https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11595165

Model code and software

A Global-Regional Nested Model of Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons Zichen Wu, Xueshun Chen, and Zifa Wang https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12214119

Zichen Wu, Xueshun Chen, Zifa Wang, Huansheng Chen, Zhe Wang, Qing Mu, Lin Wu, Wending Wang, Xiao Tang, Jie Li, Ying Li, Qizhong Wu, Yang Wang, Zhiyin Zou, and Zijian Jiang

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Short summary
We developed a model to simulate polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from global to regional scales. The model can well reproduce the distribution of PAHs. The concentration of BaP (indicator species for PAHs) could exceed the target values of 1 ng m-3 over some areas (e.g., in central Europe, India, and eastern China). The change of BaP is less than PM2.5 from 2013 to 2018. China still faces significant potential health risks posed by BaP although "the Action Plan" has been implemented.