Impact of Snow Thermal Conductivity Schemes on pan-Arctic Permafrost Dynamics in CLM5.0

Abstract. The precise magnitude and timing of permafrost-thaw-related emissions and their subsequent impact on the global climate system remain highly uncertain. This uncertainty stems from the complex quantification of the rate and extent of permafrost thaw, which is influenced by factors such as sensitivity to surface properties like snow cover. Acting as a thermal insulator, snow cover directly influences surface energy fluxes and can significantly impact the permafrost thermal regime. However, current Earth System Models often inadequately represent the nuanced effects of snow cover in permafrost regions, leading to inaccuracies in simulating soil temperatures and permafrost dynamics. Notably, CLM5.0 tends to overestimate snowpack thermal conductivity over permafrost regions, resulting in an underestimation of the snow insulating capacity. By using a snow thermal conductivity scheme better adapted for snowpack typically found in permafrost regions, we seek to resolve thermal insulation underestimation and assess the influence of snow on simulated soil temperatures and permafrost dynamics. Evaluation using two Arctic-wide soil temperature observation datasets reveals that the new snow thermal conductivity scheme noticeably reduces the cold soil temperature bias (RMSE = 3.17 to 2.4 °C, using remote sensing data; RMSE = 3.9 to 2.19 °C, using in-situ data) and effectively addresses the overestimation of permafrost extent present when using the default parameterizations of CLM5.0.