Mapping vulnerability to climate change for spatial planning in the region of Stuttgart

McMillan, Joanna M.; Göttsche, Franziska; Birkmann, Joern; Kapp, Rainer; Schmidt, Corinna; Weisser, Britta; Jamshed, Ali

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1407

Joanna M. McMillan, Franziska Göttsche, Joern Birkmann, Rainer Kapp, Corinna Schmidt, Britta Weisser, and Ali Jamshed

Abstract. The Stuttgart region in southwest Germany already experiences heat stress and extreme precipitation events. According to German law, spatial planning at the municipal and regional levels has an important role in adapting to such events. However, this is a challenge to achieve alongside other demands on land-use. One important resource to support adaptive planning are spatial risk analyses, which can provide justification for prioritising adaptation and information about where and how to prioritise different measures. Such maps should not just consider information on the nature of the hazards but also on the vulnerability of people and exposed areas. While in theory, this has been recognised and vulnerability analysis methods have been developed, there is a significant gap in linking this research to planning practice in the German context. In this paper, we share insights from developing social vulnerability maps based on an initial analysis of the requirements for such maps from a spatial planning perspective and discuss how such information can be used in planning practice. We propose solutions regarding issues such as spatial resolution, indicator selection, aggregation and complexity, report initial feedback from planners and make recommendations for further bridging the gap between risk and vulnerability research and planning practice.

Received: 13 May 2024 – Discussion started: 06 Jun 2024

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Comment	Response
376 a verb seems to be missing	We will correct this.
very good spatial check of distribution first also to include feedback of the planners, simplicity, weighting, census data did the planners also discourage certain variables to use?	We did not discuss all possible variables in detail with planners, but rather first asked for their requirements of such maps and then asked for feedback on the variables that we selected and about how best be communicated. So, no, they did not directly discourage certain variables, we eliminated variables mainly based on our findings about data availability and spatial distribution.
for the pluvial index; briefly explain why you excluded green spaces. They can have a sponge capacity overall, however, likely being to small in capacity, maybe.	We will add an explanation into the paper. Green space is very important and relevant to pluvial flood mitigation. We excluded it from the social vulnerability to pluvial flooding index because here we are focusing explicitly only on the sensitivity and capacities of the residential population. In the case of heat, having access to green space is a way that residents can reduce to some extent how much they are affected by heat. However, in the case of flooding the green space is not for use directly by residents in a flooding event, but rather a means to reduce the magnitude of the hazard. Our approach was to keep the analysis of the vulnerability (as a component of risk along with exposure and hazard) initially separate from the consideration of hazard mitigation.
"use-intensity" about line 518-521, please explain more, how you calculated the difference between the forest and the very small park.	This is a more complicated way to measure per capita green space than just area per resident within a certain area. It takes into account how many residents are within walking distance to the green space and with how many other local residents a green space has to be theoretically shared. It is easier to explain with a diagram – we will add this and the calculation steps into the appendix.
Figure 8 caption: add (old age; housing and low income) which makes it more easily readable	We will do this.
549: add a short explanation of your assumptions for an international audience: single-family homes will be replaced by....?	Yes, we will add a sentence about the densification of existing urban areas in regions with a shortage of housing options.
Figure 10: add "heat" to the caption	We will do this.
556 "in" is missing	We will correct this and add the reference to the appendix
580 why is this a challenge? Explain with one small example. This is especially important when it comes to your main conclusions in lines 594-597.	We will add a brief explanation about why having two hazard maps (depth and velocity), as well as the fine resolution of the maps makes it hard to pinpoint what is required from spatial planning.
594: adaptation needs: how do you derive that, from what? The text and maps were not about that(?) 595: also very important, but how and where did you derive which measures? Lines 598-602 are good in this direction, but should be expanded a bit and put before 594	We will rewrite and expand on this discussion paragraph based on this feedback. We will explain each point with a better description and add more examples of how the maps can be used in planning and make it clear that this is a discussion based on our research and not results of a systematic evaluation of how the maps have been used. We will remove the term adaptation needs and improve the precision of the terms in this paragraph.
Are there flood vulnerability maps missing in the annex?	We will add the synthesis map “social vulnerability to pluvial flooding” (the counterpart to Figure 10) into the annex.

Comment	Response
Abstract: Please add data analysis text	We will add a sentence about the methods.
Line80. We start this paper by providing an overview...and planning practice (Section 7.3). " Can be deleted.	We will consider deleting or significantly reducing this paragraph.
In urban planning, spatial planning is often seen in the German context. Can the framework apply to other world planning systems? Please add discussion on it.	Yes, there are lessons from this paper that apply to other planning systems, we will add this to the discussion.
Figure 2. Since vulnerability is a negative term, it is advised environmental justice to injustice (better use Climate injustice).	We will change it to environmental injustice (as we are mainly referring to literature that refers to this term).
I see some repetition in the analysis and discussion sections. Please reduce redundancy.	We will go through these sections to reduce the redundancy.

Comment	Response
376 a verb seems to be missing	We will correct this.
very good spatial check of distribution first also to include feedback of the planners, simplicity, weighting, census data did the planners also discourage certain variables to use?	We did not discuss all possible variables in detail with planners, but rather first asked for their requirements of such maps and then asked for feedback on the variables that we selected and about how best be communicated. So, no, they did not directly discourage certain variables, we eliminated variables mainly based on our findings about data availability and spatial distribution.
for the pluvial index; briefly explain why you excluded green spaces. They can have a sponge capacity overall, however, likely being to small in capacity, maybe.	We will add an explanation into the paper. Green space is very important and relevant to pluvial flood mitigation. We excluded it from the social vulnerability to pluvial flooding index because here we are focusing explicitly only on the sensitivity and capacities of the residential population. In the case of heat, having access to green space is a way that residents can reduce to some extent how much they are affected by heat. However, in the case of flooding the green space is not for use directly by residents in a flooding event, but rather a means to reduce the magnitude of the hazard. Our approach was to keep the analysis of the vulnerability (as a component of risk along with exposure and hazard) initially separate from the consideration of hazard mitigation.
"use-intensity" about line 518-521, please explain more, how you calculated the difference between the forest and the very small park.	This is a more complicated way to measure per capita green space than just area per resident within a certain area. It takes into account how many residents are within walking distance to the green space and with how many other local residents a green space has to be theoretically shared. It is easier to explain with a diagram – we will add this and the calculation steps into the appendix.
Figure 8 caption: add (old age; housing and low income) which makes it more easily readable	We will do this.
549: add a short explanation of your assumptions for an international audience: single-family homes will be replaced by....?	Yes, we will add a sentence about the densification of existing urban areas in regions with a shortage of housing options.
Figure 10: add "heat" to the caption	We will do this.
556 "in" is missing	We will correct this and add the reference to the appendix
580 why is this a challenge? Explain with one small example. This is especially important when it comes to your main conclusions in lines 594-597.	We will add a brief explanation about why having two hazard maps (depth and velocity), as well as the fine resolution of the maps makes it hard to pinpoint what is required from spatial planning.
594: adaptation needs: how do you derive that, from what? The text and maps were not about that(?) 595: also very important, but how and where did you derive which measures? Lines 598-602 are good in this direction, but should be expanded a bit and put before 594	We will rewrite and expand on this discussion paragraph based on this feedback. We will explain each point with a better description and add more examples of how the maps can be used in planning and make it clear that this is a discussion based on our research and not results of a systematic evaluation of how the maps have been used. We will remove the term adaptation needs and improve the precision of the terms in this paragraph.
Are there flood vulnerability maps missing in the annex?	We will add the synthesis map “social vulnerability to pluvial flooding” (the counterpart to Figure 10) into the annex.

Comment	Response
Abstract: Please add data analysis text	We will add a sentence about the methods.
Line80. We start this paper by providing an overview...and planning practice (Section 7.3). " Can be deleted.	We will consider deleting or significantly reducing this paragraph.
In urban planning, spatial planning is often seen in the German context. Can the framework apply to other world planning systems? Please add discussion on it.	Yes, there are lessons from this paper that apply to other planning systems, we will add this to the discussion.
Figure 2. Since vulnerability is a negative term, it is advised environmental justice to injustice (better use Climate injustice).	We will change it to environmental injustice (as we are mainly referring to literature that refers to this term).
I see some repetition in the analysis and discussion sections. Please reduce redundancy.	We will go through these sections to reduce the redundancy.

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United States of America	1	196	26
Germany	2	113	15
China	3	49	6
Romania	4	38	5
Bangladesh	5	22	3

Mapping vulnerability to climate change for spatial planning in the region of Stuttgart

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