Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1387
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1387
03 Jun 2024
 | 03 Jun 2024

Testing the reliability of global surface temperature reconstructions of the last glacial cycle

Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Nils Weitzel, Maximilian May, Lukas Jonkers, Andrew M. Dolman, and Kira Rehfeld

Abstract. Reconstructing past variations of the global mean surface temperature is used to characterise the Earth system response to perturbations as well as validate Earth system simulations. Reconstructing GMST beyond the instrumental period relies on algorithms aggregating local proxy temperature records. Here, we propose to establish standards for the evaluation of the performance of such reconstruction algorithms. Our framework relies on pseudo-proxy experiments. That is, we test the ability of the algorithm to reconstruct a simulated GMST, using artificially generated proxy data created from the same simulation. We apply the framework to an adapted version of the GMST reconstruction algorithm used in Snyder (2016), and the synthesis of marine proxy records for temperature of the last 130 kyr from Jonkers et al. (2020). We use an ensemble of 4 transient simulations of the last glacial cycle or the last 25 kyr for the pseudo-proxy experiments.

We find the algorithm to be able to reconstruct timescales longer than 4 kyr over the last 25 kyr. However, beyond 40 kyr BP, age uncertainty limits the algorithm capability to timescales longer than 15 kyr. The main sources of uncertainty are a factor, that rescales near global mean sea surface temperatures to GMST, the proxy measurement, the specific set of record locations, and potential seasonal bias. Increasing the number of records significantly reduces all sources of uncertainty but the scaling. We also show that a trade-off exists between the inclusion of a large number of records, which reduces the uncertainty on long time scales, and of only records with low age uncertainty, high accumulation rate, and high resolution, which improves the reconstruction of the short timescales.

Finally, the method and the quantitative results presented here can serve as a basis for future evaluations of reconstructions. We also suggest future avenues to improve reconstruction algorithms and discuss the key limitations arising from the proxy data properties.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

05 Feb 2025
Testing the reliability of global surface temperature reconstructions of the Last Glacial Cycle with pseudo-proxy experiments
Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Nils Weitzel, Maximilian May, Lukas Jonkers, Andrew M. Dolman, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 21, 381–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-381-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-381-2025, 2025
Short summary
Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Nils Weitzel, Maximilian May, Lukas Jonkers, Andrew M. Dolman, and Kira Rehfeld

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1387', Bryan C. Lougheed, 17 Jun 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Jean-Philippe Baudouin, 11 Jul 2024
      • RC2: 'Reply on AC1', Bryan C. Lougheed, 12 Jul 2024
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1387', Kaustubh Thirumalai, 08 Aug 2024

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1387', Bryan C. Lougheed, 17 Jun 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Jean-Philippe Baudouin, 11 Jul 2024
      • RC2: 'Reply on AC1', Bryan C. Lougheed, 12 Jul 2024
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1387', Kaustubh Thirumalai, 08 Aug 2024

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (02 Oct 2024) by Stephen Obrochta
AR by Jean-Philippe Baudouin on behalf of the Authors (01 Nov 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (05 Nov 2024) by Stephen Obrochta
RR by Kaustubh Thirumalai (06 Nov 2024)
ED: Publish as is (22 Nov 2024) by Stephen Obrochta
AR by Jean-Philippe Baudouin on behalf of the Authors (22 Nov 2024)

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

05 Feb 2025
Testing the reliability of global surface temperature reconstructions of the Last Glacial Cycle with pseudo-proxy experiments
Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Nils Weitzel, Maximilian May, Lukas Jonkers, Andrew M. Dolman, and Kira Rehfeld
Clim. Past, 21, 381–403, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-381-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-21-381-2025, 2025
Short summary
Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Nils Weitzel, Maximilian May, Lukas Jonkers, Andrew M. Dolman, and Kira Rehfeld
Jean-Philippe Baudouin, Nils Weitzel, Maximilian May, Lukas Jonkers, Andrew M. Dolman, and Kira Rehfeld

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Short summary
We explore past global temperatures, critical for climate change comprehension. We devise a method to test temperature reconstruction using climate simulations. Uncertainties, mainly from past temperature measurement methods and age determination, impact reconstructions over time. While more data enhances accuracy for long-term trends, high quality data are more important for short-term precision. Our study lays the groundwork for better reconstructions and suggests avenues for improvement.
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