the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Examining the Eastern European heatwave of 2023 from a long-term perspective: the role of natural variability vs. anthropogenic factors
Abstract. Amidst unprecedent rising global temperatures, this study investigates the historical context of heatwave (HW) events in Eastern Europe. The record-breaking 2023 summer, featuring a heatwave lasting for 19 days in the south-eastern part of Romania, extending up to Ukraine, necessitates a deeper understanding of past extreme events. Utilizing statistical methods on long-term station data spanning from 1885 to 2023, we aim to detect and analyze historical heatwaves, particularly focusing on events predating 1960. This extended timeframe allows for a more comprehensive assessment of noteworthy extremes compared to recent decades. Our analysis identifies two critical periods with increased heatwave frequency and intensity: 1920–1965 and 1980–2023, respectively, highlighting the most extreme events in August 1946, August 1952, July 2012, June 2019, and August 2023. Furthermore, reanalysis data shows that historical heatwaves, similar to the 2023 event, were associated with large-scale European heat extremes linked to high-pressure systems and they were accompanied by extreme drought, thus leading to compound extreme events. We find that while a clear trend emerges towards more frequent HWs from the 1980s onward, the analysis also uncovers substantial heatwave activity on daily timescales throughout the 1885–1960 period. Moreover, we highlight the intertwined impacts of climate change and multidecadal internal variability on heatwave patterns, with evidence suggesting that both contribute to the increasing frequency and intensity of these extreme events. Our research highlights the value of extending the historical record for a more nuanced understanding of heatwave behavior and suggests that extreme heat events, comparable to those experienced in recent decades, have occurred throughout the analyzed period.
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1207', Zhao Yang, 19 Jun 2024
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Overall, this manuscript examined the heatwaves of eastern European using long-term observation datasets. One important finding of the manuscript is to identify the importance of long-term observation data to reveal the "real" trend of heatwaves. Another important finding of the study is to reveal the correlation of heatwave and AMO. Overall, i find this paper well-written, and reads smoothly and I really enjoy reading it. Besides a few minor typos, I suggest acceptance of this manuscript. Detailed comments are listed below.
1. In the title of the paper it mentioned "the role of natural variability vs anthropogenic factors". However, after reading the entire manuscript, i don't seem to agree with the title, as there is little about quantification of the contribution of natural and anthropogenic factors to heatwaves, such as that in Luo et al. (2023). Therefore, i would recommend either delete it, or use something else.
2. Line 112. should be "Which is an indicator"
3. Line 207, "which can be influenced"
4. Line 243, "indicates how difficult", i would suggest using "misleading" instead of "difficult" here
5. You may consider adding few more references here.
Lau N-C, Nath MJ (2012) A model study of heat waves over NorthAmerica: meteorological aspects and projections for the twenty-first century. J Clim 25:4761–4784. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00575.1
Yang, Z., Dominguez, F., & Zeng, X. (2019). Large and local-scale features associated with heat waves in the United States in reanalysis products and the NARCCAP model ensemble. Clim Dyn, (3), 1883–1901. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4414-xChan, P.W., Catto, J.L. & Collins, M. Heatwave–blocking relation change likely dominates over decrease in blocking frequency under global warming. npj Clim Atmos Sci, 5, 68 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00290-26. Line 386 and Line 365 are the same. Please delete one of them.Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1207-RC1
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