The influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on Storm Babet-like events

Abstract. In October 2023 Storm Babet led to extreme flooding and strong winds across the United Kingdom. We use atmospheric flow analogues to assess multidecadal variability in events similar to Storm Babet. We show that comparing analogues for timeslices results are highly sensitive to the chosen periods, thus we instead assess analogue trends through time. We identify a possible link between Storm Babet-like events and the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), supporting the hypothesis that positive AMV leads to stormier western European weather. Events similar to Storm Babet are 7.5 times more likely during positive AMV. The method presented could be developed for use in the attribution of extreme weather events, allowing identification of possible causes of changes in the similarity of analogues to an extreme event through time. Increasing our understanding of the causes of extreme weather events can allow us to better predict future changes in such events, allowing society to prepare and adapt for the future.