Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1136
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1136
24 Apr 2024
 | 24 Apr 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).

The influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on Storm Babet-like events

Vikki Thompson, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Izidine Pinto, and Sarah F. Kew

Abstract. In October 2023 Storm Babet led to extreme flooding and strong winds across the United Kingdom. We use atmospheric flow analogues to assess multidecadal variability in events similar to Storm Babet. We show that comparing analogues for timeslices results are highly sensitive to the chosen periods, thus we instead assess analogue trends through time. We identify a possible link between Storm Babet-like events and the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), supporting the hypothesis that positive AMV leads to stormier western European weather. Events similar to Storm Babet are 7.5 times more likely during positive AMV. The method presented could be developed for use in the attribution of extreme weather events, allowing identification of possible causes of changes in the similarity of analogues to an extreme event through time. Increasing our understanding of the causes of extreme weather events can allow us to better predict future changes in such events, allowing society to prepare and adapt for the future.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Vikki Thompson, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Izidine Pinto, and Sarah F. Kew

Status: open (until 11 Jul 2024)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1136', Anonymous Referee #1, 06 Jun 2024 reply
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-1136', Anonymous Referee #2, 10 Jun 2024 reply
Vikki Thompson, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Izidine Pinto, and Sarah F. Kew
Vikki Thompson, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Izidine Pinto, and Sarah F. Kew

Viewed

Total article views: 251 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
179 57 15 251 9 9
  • HTML: 179
  • PDF: 57
  • XML: 15
  • Total: 251
  • BibTeX: 9
  • EndNote: 9
Views and downloads (calculated since 24 Apr 2024)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 24 Apr 2024)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 249 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 249 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 12 Jun 2024
Download
Short summary
In October 2023 Storm Babet brought flooding and strong winds to the UK. We show that similar events are more likely when the North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are higher. The North Atlantic exhibits multidecadal variability impacting the sea surface temperatures. This suggests that trends in storms similar to Babet are driven by multidecadal variability more than climate change. Increasing our knowledge of the causes of extreme weather can allow us to prepare and adapt for future changes.