Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3061
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3061
22 Jan 2024
 | 22 Jan 2024
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Quasi Real-Time Tsunami Early Warning Assessment Based on Finite Fault models

Matías Sifón, Mauricio Fuentes, Sebastian Riquelme, Rodrigo Sánchez, and Sebastian Arriola

Abstract. In Chile, Tsunami Early Warning relies on a precomputed set of scenarios for places near the tsunami generation zone. These scenarios are non-realistic and are computed from a uniform constant slip over the rupture surface, because of the short reaction time for the local authorities to manage the threat. Here, we present a new methodology that allows quasi-real time tsunami modelling using a finite fault model inversion to evaluate tsunami threat levels. A linear approximation at first order terms of the shallow water wave equations turns into a numerical solver that can be implemented on a programming language. As a case of study, the proposed method is applied in Chile. The results show that it is possible to obtain realistic threat levels and arrival times for the tsunami in progress. Once the finite fault is calculated, it takes a minute to produce the warning maps.

The proposal considers realistic heterogeneous and kinematic fault models of seismic sources obtained rapidly using continuous GPS, strong motion and broadband records, expanding the evaluation capabilities of Tsunami Early Warning Systems. Using directly the finite fault avoids the unrealistic model of uniform slip distribution and diminishes the uncertainty imposed by precomputed scenarios.

Matías Sifón, Mauricio Fuentes, Sebastian Riquelme, Rodrigo Sánchez, and Sebastian Arriola

Status: open (until 04 Mar 2024)

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Matías Sifón, Mauricio Fuentes, Sebastian Riquelme, Rodrigo Sánchez, and Sebastian Arriola
Matías Sifón, Mauricio Fuentes, Sebastian Riquelme, Rodrigo Sánchez, and Sebastian Arriola

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Short summary
Chile is a country exposed to tsunami threats that must be managed by authorities to save lives. A new development is presented, consisting on a strategy that allows to evaluate the tsunami threat potential of any seismic source by modelling the tsunami in quasi-real time using the parameters of the earthquake, enhancing the capabilities of the early warning system by having no limits of the seismic source, overcoming some limitations of the actual strategy.