Preprints
https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.167751627.70583046/v2
https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.167751627.70583046/v2
11 Jan 2024
 | 11 Jan 2024

Flood Occurrence and Impact Models for Socioeconomic Applications over Canada and the United States

Manuel Grenier, Mathieu Boudreault, David A. Carozza, Jérémie Boudreault, and Sébastien Raymond

Abstract. Large-scale socioeconomic studies of the impacts of floods are difficult and costly for countries such as Canada and the United States due to the large number of rivers and size of watersheds. Such studies are however very important to analyze spatial patterns and temporal trends to inform large-scale flood risk management decisions and policies. In this paper, we present different flood occurrence and impact models based upon statistical and machine learning methods over 31,000 watersheds spread across Canada and the US. The models can be quickly calibrated and thereby easily run predictions over thousands of scenarios in a matter of minutes. As applications of the models, we present the geographical distribution of the modelled average annual number of people displaced due to flooding in Canada and the US, as well as various scenario analyses. We find for example that an increase of 10 % in average precipitation yields an increase of population displaced of 18 % in Canada and 14 % in the U.S. The model can therefore be used by a broad range of end-users ranging from climate scientists to economists who seek to translate climate and socioeconomic scenarios into flood probabilities and impacts measured in terms of population displaced.

Manuel Grenier, Mathieu Boudreault, David A. Carozza, Jérémie Boudreault, and Sébastien Raymond

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-3039', Anonymous Referee #1, 26 Feb 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Mathieu Boudreault, 25 Mar 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-3039', Anonymous Referee #2, 06 Mar 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Mathieu Boudreault, 25 Mar 2024

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-3039', Anonymous Referee #1, 26 Feb 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Mathieu Boudreault, 25 Mar 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-3039', Anonymous Referee #2, 06 Mar 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Mathieu Boudreault, 25 Mar 2024
Manuel Grenier, Mathieu Boudreault, David A. Carozza, Jérémie Boudreault, and Sébastien Raymond

Data sets

Flood Occurrence and Impact Models for Socioeconomic Applications over Canada and the United States (Supplementary Material) Manuel Grenier, Mathieu Boudreault, David A. Carozza, Jérémie Boudreault, and Sébastien Raymond https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10201817

Manuel Grenier, Mathieu Boudreault, David A. Carozza, Jérémie Boudreault, and Sébastien Raymond

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Short summary
Modelling floods at the street-level for large countries like Canada and the United States is difficult and very costly. However, many applications do not necessarily require that level of details. As a result, we present a flood modelling framework built with artificial intelligence for socioeconomic studies like trend and scenarios analyses. We find for example that an increase of 10 % in average precipitation yields an increase of population displaced of 18 % in Canada and 14 % in the U.S.