the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Estimating Ground Motion Intensities Using Simulation-Based Estimates of Local Crustal Seismic Response
Abstract. It is estimated that 2 billion people will move to cities in the next 30 years, many of which possess high seismic risk, underscoring the importance of reliable hazard assessments. Current ground motion models for these assessments typically rely on an extensive catalogue of events to derive empirical Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs), which are often unavailable in developing countries. Considering the challenge, we choose an alternative method utilizing physics-based (PB) ground motion simulations and develop a simplified decomposition of ground motion estimation by considering regional attenuation (Δ) and local site amplification (Α), thereby exploring how much of the observed variability can be explained solely by wave propagation effects. We deterministically evaluate these parameters in a virtual city named Tomorrowville, located in a 3D layered crustal velocity model containing sedimentary basins, using randomly oriented extended sources. Using these physics-based empirical parameters (Δ and Α), we evaluate the intensities, particularly Peak Ground Accelerations (PGA), of hypothetical future earthquakes. The results suggest that the estimation of PGA using the deterministic Δ – Α decomposition exhibits a robust spatial correlation with the PGA obtained from simulations within Tomorrowville. This method exposes an order of magnitude spatial variability in PGA within Tomorrowville, primarily associated with the near-surface geology and largely independent of the seismic source. In conclusion, advances in PB simulations and improved crustal structure determination offer the potential to overcome the limitations of earthquake data availability to some extent, enabling prompt evaluation of ground motion intensities.
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Notice on discussion status
The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.
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Preprint
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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.
Journal article(s) based on this preprint
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2895', Anonymous Referee #1, 15 Feb 2024
Dear authors,
your manuscript titled ‘Estimating Ground Motion Intensities Using Simulation-Based Estimated of Local Crustal Seismic Response’ describes an alternative approach to obtain ground motion models for seismic hazard assessment that does not rely on the existence of elaborate earthquake catalogs. I am fully invested in moving away from relying solely on information from past earthquakes and moving towards a physics-based solution able to sample the investigated area with high resolution. With modern advances in computing power, a simulation-based approach is becoming a very realistic alternative. I appreciate the author’s detail to theoretical considerations. My main advice would be to be a bit more specific in how a potential reader could apply this workflow. The easier it is to adopt the approach, the wider it will get used. Attached are some specific comments that may help you.
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AC3: 'Reply on RC1', Himanshu Agrawal, 09 Apr 2024
Dear Anonymous reviewer,
Thank you very much for expressing interest in this work and for your appreciation, as well as for providing valuable comments and suggestions. Your insights have significantly contributed to the enhancement of the manuscript, and I sincerely appreciate the time you dedicated to this manuscript.
Please note that unfortunately, my co-author and dear friend, John McCloskey, passed away last year in November. However, his authorship is retained to honor his contributions to this work. This response file and revisions to the manuscript are now made in consultation with my collaborators (names in the acknowledgement section), who are also experts in seismology.Kind regards,
Himanshu Agrawal
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AC3: 'Reply on RC1', Himanshu Agrawal, 09 Apr 2024
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2895', Anonymous Referee #2, 27 Feb 2024
Paper of Himanshu Agrawal and John McCloskey named “Estimating Ground Motion Intensities Using Simulation-Based Estimates of Local Crustal Seismic Response” focuses on the effects of the sedimentary basin on physic-based synthetic ground motion simulation. The topic certainly in the scope of the journal.
The paper is well-written and nicely organized. However, it requires some clarifications and modifications. Authors may find my suggestions in the attached document.
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AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Himanshu Agrawal, 09 Apr 2024
Dear Anonymous Reviewer,
I appreciate the valuable feedback and suggestions you have provided, greatly enhancing the quality of this manuscript. Based on your thorough review, I have attached a detailed response below.
Please note that unfortunately, my co-author and dear friend, John McCloskey, passed away last year in November. However, his authorship is retained to honor his contributions to this work. This response file and revisions to the manuscript are now made in consultation with my collaborators (names in the acknowledgement section), who are also experts in seismology.
Kind regards,
Himanshu Agrawal -
AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Himanshu Agrawal, 09 Apr 2024
Publisher’s note: this comment is a copy of AC1 and its content was therefore removed.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2895-AC2
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AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Himanshu Agrawal, 09 Apr 2024
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2895', Anonymous Referee #1, 15 Feb 2024
Dear authors,
your manuscript titled ‘Estimating Ground Motion Intensities Using Simulation-Based Estimated of Local Crustal Seismic Response’ describes an alternative approach to obtain ground motion models for seismic hazard assessment that does not rely on the existence of elaborate earthquake catalogs. I am fully invested in moving away from relying solely on information from past earthquakes and moving towards a physics-based solution able to sample the investigated area with high resolution. With modern advances in computing power, a simulation-based approach is becoming a very realistic alternative. I appreciate the author’s detail to theoretical considerations. My main advice would be to be a bit more specific in how a potential reader could apply this workflow. The easier it is to adopt the approach, the wider it will get used. Attached are some specific comments that may help you.
-
AC3: 'Reply on RC1', Himanshu Agrawal, 09 Apr 2024
Dear Anonymous reviewer,
Thank you very much for expressing interest in this work and for your appreciation, as well as for providing valuable comments and suggestions. Your insights have significantly contributed to the enhancement of the manuscript, and I sincerely appreciate the time you dedicated to this manuscript.
Please note that unfortunately, my co-author and dear friend, John McCloskey, passed away last year in November. However, his authorship is retained to honor his contributions to this work. This response file and revisions to the manuscript are now made in consultation with my collaborators (names in the acknowledgement section), who are also experts in seismology.Kind regards,
Himanshu Agrawal
-
AC3: 'Reply on RC1', Himanshu Agrawal, 09 Apr 2024
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2895', Anonymous Referee #2, 27 Feb 2024
Paper of Himanshu Agrawal and John McCloskey named “Estimating Ground Motion Intensities Using Simulation-Based Estimates of Local Crustal Seismic Response” focuses on the effects of the sedimentary basin on physic-based synthetic ground motion simulation. The topic certainly in the scope of the journal.
The paper is well-written and nicely organized. However, it requires some clarifications and modifications. Authors may find my suggestions in the attached document.
-
AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Himanshu Agrawal, 09 Apr 2024
Dear Anonymous Reviewer,
I appreciate the valuable feedback and suggestions you have provided, greatly enhancing the quality of this manuscript. Based on your thorough review, I have attached a detailed response below.
Please note that unfortunately, my co-author and dear friend, John McCloskey, passed away last year in November. However, his authorship is retained to honor his contributions to this work. This response file and revisions to the manuscript are now made in consultation with my collaborators (names in the acknowledgement section), who are also experts in seismology.
Kind regards,
Himanshu Agrawal -
AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Himanshu Agrawal, 09 Apr 2024
Publisher’s note: this comment is a copy of AC1 and its content was therefore removed.
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2895-AC2
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AC1: 'Reply on RC2', Himanshu Agrawal, 09 Apr 2024
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John McCloskey
The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.