Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis of Batukaras Village as a Tourism Village in Indonesia
Abstract. Indonesia's location in the middle of tectonic plates makes it vulnerable to earthquakes and tsunamis, especially in the megathrust zone around Sumatra Island and the southern part of Java Island. Research shows a seismic gap in southern Java, which poses a potential threat of megathrust earthquakes and tsunamis, impacting coastal areas such as Batukaras Village in West Java, a popular tourist destination. To prepare for disasters, Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), which focuses on seismic factors, was carried out by modeling tsunamis on 3,348 sub-segments of 4 large megathrust segments in the south of Java Island. Stochastic earthquake modeling to simulate the occurrence of a tsunami from an earthquake with 6.5 Mw to the highest potential magnitude on each segment. This research shows that PTHA in Batukaras Village reveals varying heights of 0.84 m, 1.63 m, 2.97 m, and 5.7 m for each earthquake return period of 250 years, 500 years, 1000 years, and 2500 years. The dominant threat arises from the West Java-Central Java megathrust segment, emphasizing the importance of preparedness, although the annual probability of tsunamis is generally low. Our study will deepen knowledge of tsunami hazards associated with megathrust activities near Batukaras Village for mitigation planning and decision-making, and it can become a reference for similar coastal tourist areas.
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