09 May 2023
 | 09 May 2023
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

ESD Ideas: Arctic Amplification’s Contribution to Breaches of the Paris Agreement

Alistair Duffey, Robbie Mallett, Peter J. Irvine, Michel Tsamados, and Julienne Stroeve

Abstract. The Arctic is warming at almost four times the global average rate. Here we reframe this amplified Arctic warming in terms of global climate ambition to show that it causes a breach of the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 °C and 2 °C limits 5 and 8 years earlier, respectively. This outsized influence on global climate targets highlights the need for better modelling and monitoring of Arctic change.

Alistair Duffey et al.

Status: open (until 20 Jun 2023)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-810', Anonymous Referee #1, 10 May 2023 reply
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-810', Anonymous Referee #2, 12 May 2023 reply
  • CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-810', Alek Petty, 25 May 2023 reply

Alistair Duffey et al.

Alistair Duffey et al.


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Short summary
The Arctic is warming several times faster than the rest of the planet. Here, we use climate model projections to quantify for the first time how this faster warming in the Arctic impacts the timing of crossing the 1.5 °C and 2 °C thresholds defined in the Paris agreement. We show that under plausible emissions scenarios that fail to meet the Paris 1.5 °C target, the faster warming in the Arctic is expected to bring forward the date when that target is breached by around 5 years.