Continuous increase in East Asia HFC-23 emissions inferred from high-frequency atmospheric observations from 2008 to 2019

Abstract. Trifluoromethane (CHF₃, HFC-23), one of the most potent greenhouse gases among HFCs, is mainly emitted to the atmosphere as a by-product in the production of the ozone depleting legacy refrigerant and chemical feedstock chlorodifluoromethane (CHClF₂, HCFC-22). A recent study on global HFC-23 emissions (Stanley et al., 2020) showed significant discrepancies over 2014–2017 between the increase in the observation-derived (top-down) emissions and the 87 % emission reduction expected from capture and destruction processes of HFC-23 at HCFC-22 production facilities mandated by national phase-out plans (bottom-up). However, the actual sources of the increased emissions were not identified. Here, we estimate the regional top-down emissions of HFC-23 for East Asia based on in situ measurements at Gosan, South Korea, and show that the HFC-23 emissions from eastern China have increased from 5.0 ± 0.4 Gg yr^-1 in 2008 to 9.5 ± 1.0 Gg yr^-1 in 2019. The continuous rise was contrary to the large emissions reduction reported since 2015 under the Chinese hydrochlorofluorocarbons production phase-out management plan (HPPMP). The magnitude of the mismatch between top-down and bottom-up estimates for 2015–2019 in eastern China was ~23.7 ± 3.6 Gg, which accounts for 47 ± 11 % of the global mismatch.

Given the location of HCFC-22 production plants in eastern China and the fraction of regional to global HCFC-22 production capacities, the HFC-23 emissions rise in eastern China is most likely associated with known HCFC-22 production facilities and thus, observed discrepancies between top-down and bottom-up emissions could be attributed to unsuccessful factory level HFC-23 abatement and inaccurate quantification of emission reductions.