Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-32
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-32
09 Feb 2023
 | 09 Feb 2023

Role of mean and variability change for changes in European annual and seasonal extreme precipitation events

Raul R. Wood

Abstract. The frequency of precipitation extremes is set to change in response to a warming climate. Thereby, the change in precipitation extreme event occurrence is influenced by both a shift in the mean and a change in variability. How large the individual contributions from either of them (mean or variability) to the change in precipitation extremes are, is largely unknown. This is however relevant for a better understanding of how and why climate extremes change. For this study, two sets of forcing experiments from the regional CRCM5 initial-condition large ensemble are used. A set of 50 members with historical and RCP8.5 forcing as well as a 35-member (700 year) ensemble of pre-industrial natural forcing. The concept of the probability risk ratio is used to partition the change in extreme event occurrence into contributions from a change in mean climate or a change in variability. The results show that the contributions from a change in variability are in parts equally important to changes in the mean, and can even exceed them. The level of contributions shows high spatial variation which underlines the importance of regional processes for changes in extremes. While over Scandinavia or Mid-Europe the mean influences the increase in extremes more, reversely the increase is driven by changes in variability over France, the Iberian Peninsula, and the Mediterranean. For annual extremes the differences between the ratios of contribution of mean and variability are smaller, while on seasonal scales the difference in contributions becomes larger. In winter (DJF) the mean contributes more to an increase in extreme events, while in summer (JJA) the change in variability drives the change in extremes. The level of temporal aggregation (3 h, 24 h, 72 h) has only a small influence on annual and winterly extremes, while in summer the contribution from variability can increase with longer durations. The level of extremeness for the event definition generally increases the role of variability. These results highlight the need for a better understanding of changes in climate variability to better understand the mechanisms behind changes in climate extremes.

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

16 Aug 2023
Role of mean and variability change in changes in European annual and seasonal extreme precipitation events
Raul R. Wood
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 797–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-797-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-797-2023, 2023
Short summary

Raul R. Wood

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-32', Anonymous Referee #1, 18 Mar 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Raul R. Wood, 11 May 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-32', Anonymous Referee #2, 15 Apr 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Raul R. Wood, 11 May 2023

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-32', Anonymous Referee #1, 18 Mar 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Raul R. Wood, 11 May 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-32', Anonymous Referee #2, 15 Apr 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Raul R. Wood, 11 May 2023

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (08 Jun 2023) by Fubao Sun
AR by Raul R. Wood on behalf of the Authors (17 Jun 2023)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (14 Jul 2023) by Fubao Sun
AR by Raul R. Wood on behalf of the Authors (18 Jul 2023)

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

16 Aug 2023
Role of mean and variability change in changes in European annual and seasonal extreme precipitation events
Raul R. Wood
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 797–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-797-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-797-2023, 2023
Short summary

Raul R. Wood

Data sets

CRCM5-LE ClimEx-Project https://climex-data.srv.lrz.de/Public/

Raul R. Wood

Viewed

Total article views: 396 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total Supplement BibTeX EndNote
259 118 19 396 39 4 3
  • HTML: 259
  • PDF: 118
  • XML: 19
  • Total: 396
  • Supplement: 39
  • BibTeX: 4
  • EndNote: 3
Views and downloads (calculated since 09 Feb 2023)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 09 Feb 2023)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 396 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 396 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 16 Aug 2023
Download

The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
The change in extreme event occurrence is influenced by both a shift in the mean and a change in variability. How large the individual contributions from either of them is, is largely unknown. Large-ensemble climate simulations and the probability risk ratio are used to partition the change in extreme precipitation events into contributions from a change in the mean and variability. The results reveal that the change in variability can be equally or even more important than the mean change.