Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2661
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2661
06 Dec 2023
 | 06 Dec 2023

AMOC Stability Amid Tipping Ice Sheets: The Crucial Role of Rate and Noise

Sacha Sinet, Peter Ashwin, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra

Abstract. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has recently been categorised as core tipping element, for it is believed to be prone to critical transition under climate change, implying drastic consequences on a planetary scale. Moreover, the AMOC is strongly coupled to polar ice sheets via meltwater fluxes. On one hand, most studies agree on the fact that a collapse of the Greenland ice sheet would result in a weakening of AMOC. On the other hand, the consequences of a collapse of the West Antarctica ice sheet are less well understood. However, some studies suggest that meltwater originating from the Southern Hemisphere is able to stabilize the AMOC. Using a conceptual model of the AMOC and a minimal parameterization of ice sheet collapse, we investigate the origin and relevance of this stabilization effect in both the deterministic and stochastic cases. While a substantial stabilization is found in both cases, we find that important rate and noise-induced effects result in bifurcation-induced tipping approaches to be inaccurate for predicting the AMOC stability.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

12 Jul 2024
AMOC stability amid tipping ice sheets: the crucial role of rate and noise
Sacha Sinet, Peter Ashwin, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 859–873, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-859-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-859-2024, 2024
Short summary
Sacha Sinet, Peter Ashwin, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2661', Anonymous Referee #1, 18 Jan 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Sacha Sinet, 29 Mar 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2661', Anonymous Referee #2, 06 Mar 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Sacha Sinet, 29 Mar 2024

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2661', Anonymous Referee #1, 18 Jan 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Sacha Sinet, 29 Mar 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2661', Anonymous Referee #2, 06 Mar 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Sacha Sinet, 29 Mar 2024

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (01 Apr 2024) by Gabriele Messori
AR by Sacha Sinet on behalf of the Authors (10 May 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (15 May 2024) by Gabriele Messori
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (15 May 2024)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (16 May 2024) by Gabriele Messori
AR by Sacha Sinet on behalf of the Authors (23 May 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (27 May 2024) by Gabriele Messori
ED: Publish as is (27 May 2024) by Gabriele Messori (Chief editor)
AR by Sacha Sinet on behalf of the Authors (27 May 2024)

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

12 Jul 2024
AMOC stability amid tipping ice sheets: the crucial role of rate and noise
Sacha Sinet, Peter Ashwin, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 859–873, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-859-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-859-2024, 2024
Short summary
Sacha Sinet, Peter Ashwin, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra

Model code and software

AMOC Stability Amid Tipping Ice Sheets: The Crucial Role of Rate and Noise [Software] S. Sinet https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10090807

Sacha Sinet, Peter Ashwin, Anna S. von der Heydt, and Henk A. Dijkstra

Viewed

Total article views: 690 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
471 187 32 690 24 23
  • HTML: 471
  • PDF: 187
  • XML: 32
  • Total: 690
  • BibTeX: 24
  • EndNote: 23
Views and downloads (calculated since 06 Dec 2023)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 06 Dec 2023)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 685 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 685 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 

Cited

Latest update: 01 Sep 2024
Download

The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
Some components of the Earth system may irreversibly collapse under global warming. Among them, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the Greenland ice sheet and West Antarctica ice sheet are of utmost importance for maintaining the present-day climate. In a simplified model, we show that both the rate of ice melting and the natural variability linked to freshwater fluxes over the Atlantic Ocean drastically affect how an ice sheet collapse impacts the AMOC stability.