Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2599
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2599
08 Nov 2023
 | 08 Nov 2023

Calibrating estimates of ionospheric long-term change

Christopher John Scott, Matthew N. Wild, Luke Anthony Barnard, Bingkun Yu, Tatsuhiro Yokoyama, Michael Lockwood, Cathryn Mitchel, John Coxon, and Andrew Kavanagh

Abstract. Long-term change in the height of the ionospheric F2 layer, hmF2, is predicted to result from increased levels of tropospheric greenhouse gases. Sufficiently long sequences of ionospheric data exist to investigate this long-term change, recorded by a global network of ionosondes. However, direct measurements of ionospheric layer height with these instruments is not possible. As a result, most estimates of hmF2 rely on empirical formulae based on parameters routinely scaled from ionograms. Estimates of trends in hmF2 using these formulae show no global consensus. We present an analysis in which data from the Japanese ionosonde station at Kokubunji were used to estimate monthly median values of hmF2 using an empirical formula. These were then compared with direct measurements of the F2 layer height determined from Incoherent Scatter measurements made at the Shigaraki MU observatory, Japan. Our results reveal that the formula introduces diurnal, seasonal and long-term biases in the estimates of hmF2 of ≈ ±10 % (±25 km an altitude of 250 km). These can be explained by the presence of underlying F1 layer ionisation not accounted for in the formula. We demonstrate, that for Kokobunji, the ratio of F2/F1 peak electron concentrations is strongly controlled by changes in geomagnetic activity represented by the am index. Changes in thermospheric composition in response to geomagnetic activity have been shown to be highly localised. We conclude that localised changes in thermospheric composition modulate the F2/F1 peak ratio, leading to differences in hmF2 trends. We further conclude that the influence of thermospheric composition on the underlying ionosphere needs to be accounted for in these empirical formulae if they are to be applied to studies of long-term ionospheric change.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

24 Sep 2024
| Highlight paper
Calibrating estimates of ionospheric long-term change
Christopher John Scott, Matthew N. Wild, Luke Anthony Barnard, Bingkun Yu, Tatsuhiro Yokoyama, Michael Lockwood, Cathryn Mitchel, John Coxon, and Andrew Kavanagh
Ann. Geophys., 42, 395–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-42-395-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-42-395-2024, 2024
Short summary Editor-in-chief
Christopher John Scott, Matthew N. Wild, Luke Anthony Barnard, Bingkun Yu, Tatsuhiro Yokoyama, Michael Lockwood, Cathryn Mitchel, John Coxon, and Andrew Kavanagh

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2599', Claudia Borries, 01 Dec 2023
    • AC3: 'Reply on CC1', Chris Scott, 20 May 2024
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2599', Anonymous Referee #1, 24 Dec 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Chris Scott, 20 May 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2599', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 Feb 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Chris Scott, 20 May 2024

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2599', Claudia Borries, 01 Dec 2023
    • AC3: 'Reply on CC1', Chris Scott, 20 May 2024
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2599', Anonymous Referee #1, 24 Dec 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Chris Scott, 20 May 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2599', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 Feb 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Chris Scott, 20 May 2024

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to revisions (further review by editor and referees) (20 May 2024) by Ana G. Elias
AR by Chris Scott on behalf of the Authors (06 Jun 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (10 Jun 2024) by Ana G. Elias
ED: Publish as is (20 Jul 2024) by Ana G. Elias
AR by Chris Scott on behalf of the Authors (23 Jul 2024)  Author's response   Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

24 Sep 2024
| Highlight paper
Calibrating estimates of ionospheric long-term change
Christopher John Scott, Matthew N. Wild, Luke Anthony Barnard, Bingkun Yu, Tatsuhiro Yokoyama, Michael Lockwood, Cathryn Mitchel, John Coxon, and Andrew Kavanagh
Ann. Geophys., 42, 395–418, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-42-395-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-42-395-2024, 2024
Short summary Editor-in-chief
Christopher John Scott, Matthew N. Wild, Luke Anthony Barnard, Bingkun Yu, Tatsuhiro Yokoyama, Michael Lockwood, Cathryn Mitchel, John Coxon, and Andrew Kavanagh
Christopher John Scott, Matthew N. Wild, Luke Anthony Barnard, Bingkun Yu, Tatsuhiro Yokoyama, Michael Lockwood, Cathryn Mitchel, John Coxon, and Andrew Kavanagh

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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

The topic of long-term changes and trends in the upper atmosphere, since Roble and Dickinson's seminal 1989 paper, remains relevant and current with ongoing controversies. Some of these issues have been resolved over time, while others have become even more controversial. This paper makes a significant contribution to this important topic. The authors have demonstrated that at least one of the widely used established empirical formulae for the ionospheric peak height, hmF2, introduces diurnal, seasonal, and long-term biases into hmF2 estimates. These biases are of similar, if not greater, magnitude than those expected from the long-term cooling resulting from increased greenhouse gases concentration.
Short summary
Long-term change in the ionosphere are expected due to increase in greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere. Empirical formulae are used to estimate height. Through comparison with independent data we show that there are seasonal and long-term biases introduced by the empirical model. We conclude that estimates of long-term changes in ionospheric height need to account for these biases.