Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2420
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2420
14 Nov 2023
 | 14 Nov 2023

HESS Opinions: The Sword of Damocles of the Impossible Flood

Alberto Montanari, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl

Abstract. Extremely large floods, or mega-floods, are often considered virtually ‘impossible’, yet are an ever-present threat similar to the sword suspended over the head of Damocles in the classical Greek anecdote. Neglecting such floods may lead to emergency situations where society is unprepared, and to disastrous consequences. Four reasons why extremely large floods are often considered next to impossible are explored here, including physical (e.g. climate change), psychological, socio-economic and combined reasons. It is argued that the risk associated with an ‘impossible’ flood may often be larger than expected, and that a bottom-up approach should be adopted that starts from the people affected and explores possibilities of risk management, giving high priority to social in addition to economic risks. Suggestions are given for managing this risk of a flood considered impossible by addressing the diverse causes of the presumed impossibility.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

19 Jun 2024
HESS Opinions: The sword of Damocles of the impossible flood
Alberto Montanari, Bruno Merz, and Günter Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2603–2615, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2603-2024, 2024
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The requested preprint has a corresponding peer-reviewed final revised paper. You are encouraged to refer to the final revised version.

Short summary
Floods often take communities by surprise, as they are often considered virtually “impossible”,...
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