Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2308
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2308
10 Nov 2023
 | 10 Nov 2023

Surface networks in the Arctic may miss a future "methane bomb"

Sophie Wittig, Antoine Berchet, Isabelle Pison, Marielle Saunois, and Jean-Daniel Paris

Abstract. The Arctic is warming up to four times faster than the global average, leading to significant environmental changes. Given the sensitivity of natural methane (CH4) sources to environmental conditions, increasing Arctic temperatures are expected to lead to higher CH4 emissions, particularly due to permafrost thaw and the exposure of organic matter. Some estimates therefore assume an Arctic "methane bomb" where vast CH4 amounts are rapidly released. This study examines the ability of the in-situ observation network to detect such events in the Arctic, a generally poorly constrained region. Using the FLEXPART atmospheric transport model and varying CH4 emission scenarios, we found that areas with a dense observation network could detect a "methane bomb" in 2 to 10 years. In contrast, regions with sparse coverage would need 10 to 30 years, with potential false positives in other areas.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Sophie Wittig, Antoine Berchet, Isabelle Pison, Marielle Saunois, and Jean-Daniel Paris

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2308', Anonymous Referee #1, 12 Dec 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2308', Mathias Göckede, 12 Dec 2023

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2308', Anonymous Referee #1, 12 Dec 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2308', Mathias Göckede, 12 Dec 2023
Sophie Wittig, Antoine Berchet, Isabelle Pison, Marielle Saunois, and Jean-Daniel Paris
Sophie Wittig, Antoine Berchet, Isabelle Pison, Marielle Saunois, and Jean-Daniel Paris

Viewed

Total article views: 252 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total Supplement BibTeX EndNote
171 61 20 252 23 11 12
  • HTML: 171
  • PDF: 61
  • XML: 20
  • Total: 252
  • Supplement: 23
  • BibTeX: 11
  • EndNote: 12
Views and downloads (calculated since 10 Nov 2023)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 10 Nov 2023)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 246 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 246 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 22 May 2024
Download
Short summary
The aim of this work is to analyse how accurately a "methane bomb" event could be detected with the current and a hypothetically extended, stationary observation network in the Arctic. Therefore, we incorporate synthetically modelled possible future CH4 concentrations based on plausible emission scenarios into an inverse modelling framework. We analyse how well the increase is detected in different Arctic regions and evaluate the impact of additional observation sites in this respect.