Surface networks in the Arctic may miss a future "methane bomb"

Abstract. The Arctic is warming up to four times faster than the global average, leading to significant environmental changes. Given the sensitivity of natural methane (CH₄) sources to environmental conditions, increasing Arctic temperatures are expected to lead to higher CH₄ emissions, particularly due to permafrost thaw and the exposure of organic matter. Some estimates therefore assume an Arctic "methane bomb" where vast CH₄ amounts are rapidly released. This study examines the ability of the in-situ observation network to detect such events in the Arctic, a generally poorly constrained region. Using the FLEXPART atmospheric transport model and varying CH₄ emission scenarios, we found that areas with a dense observation network could detect a "methane bomb" in 2 to 10 years. In contrast, regions with sparse coverage would need 10 to 30 years, with potential false positives in other areas.