Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2269
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2269
16 Oct 2023
 | 16 Oct 2023

On the spatial calibration of imperfect climate models

Saloua Peatier, Benjamin M. Sanderson, and Laurent Terray

Abstract. The calibration of Earth System Model parameters is subject to both data, time and computational constraints. The high dimensionality of this calibration problem, combined with errors which arise from model structural assumptions makes it impossible to find model versions fully consistent with historical observations, with the potential for multiple plausible configurations which make different tradeoffs between skill in different variables or spatial regions. In this study, we lay out a formalism for making different assumptions about how ensemble variability in a Perturbed Physics Ensemble (PPE) relates to model error, proposing an empirical but practical solution for finding diverse near-optimal solutions. We argue that the effective degrees of freedom in model performance response to parameter input (the ’parametric component’ ) is, in fact, relatively small, illustrating why manual calibration is often able to find near-optimal solutions. Comparison with a perturbed initial condition ensemble reveals that internal variability associated with this parametric component of model error is negligible. Finally, there is a potential for comparably performing parameter configurations making different trade-offs in model errors. These alternative configurations can inform model development and could potentially lead to significantly different future climate evolution. 

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

06 Aug 2024
Exploration of diverse solutions for the calibration of imperfect climate models
Saloua Peatier, Benjamin M. Sanderson, and Laurent Terray
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 987–1014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-987-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-987-2024, 2024
Short summary
Saloua Peatier, Benjamin M. Sanderson, and Laurent Terray

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2269', Anonymous Referee #1, 13 Nov 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2269', Anonymous Referee #2, 19 Nov 2023
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2269', Anonymous Referee #3, 20 Nov 2023

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2269', Anonymous Referee #1, 13 Nov 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2269', Anonymous Referee #2, 19 Nov 2023
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2269', Anonymous Referee #3, 20 Nov 2023

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (24 Feb 2024) by Eviatar Bach
AR by Saloua Peatier on behalf of the Authors (12 Apr 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (16 Apr 2024) by Eviatar Bach
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (24 Apr 2024)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (06 May 2024)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (14 May 2024) by Eviatar Bach
AR by Saloua Peatier on behalf of the Authors (28 May 2024)  Author's response   Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

06 Aug 2024
Exploration of diverse solutions for the calibration of imperfect climate models
Saloua Peatier, Benjamin M. Sanderson, and Laurent Terray
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 987–1014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-987-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-987-2024, 2024
Short summary
Saloua Peatier, Benjamin M. Sanderson, and Laurent Terray
Saloua Peatier, Benjamin M. Sanderson, and Laurent Terray

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Short summary
The calibration of Earth System Model parameters is a high dimensionality problem subjects to both data, time and computational constraints. In this study, we propose a practical solution for finding diverse near-optimal solutions. We argue that the effective degrees of freedom in model performance response to parameter input is relatively small. Comparably performing parameter configuration exist and showcase different trade-offs in model errors, providing insights for model development.