Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2241
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2241
20 Nov 2023
 | 20 Nov 2023

The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to majority

Jordan Paul Everall, Jonathan F. Donges, and Ilona M. Otto

Abstract. How do social networks tip? A popular theory is that a small minority can affect network, or population wide change. This effect is roughly consistent with the properties of the Pareto principle, a semi-quantitative law which suggests that in many systems, 80 % of effects are produced by only 20 % of the causes. In the context of the transition to net-zero emissions, this vital 20 % can be a critical instigator of social tipping, a process which can rapidly accelerate social norm change. In this work, we ask whether the Pareto effect can be observed in social systems by conducting a literature review with a focus on social norm diffusion and complex contagion on social networks. By collecting simulation and empirical results of social tipping events over a wide disciplinary, and parametric space, we are able to see the existence of shared behaviour across studies. Based on a compiled dataset, we show general support for the existence of a tipping point which occurs at around 25 % of the total population in susceptible social systems. Around this critical mass, there is a high likelihood of a social tipping event, where a large minority is then quickly “tipped”. Additionally, we were able to show a range of critical masses where social tipping is possible, these values lie roughly between 10 % and 45 %. Finally, we also provide practical advice for facilitating norm changes under uncertainty, difficult social norm transitions, and social groups resistant to change.

Competing interests: At least one of the (co-)authors is a member of the editorial board of Earth System Dynamics.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

28 Jan 2025
The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to majority
Jordan P. Everall, Fabian Tschofenig, Jonathan F. Donges, and Ilona M. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 189–214, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-189-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-189-2025, 2025
Short summary
Jordan Paul Everall, Jonathan F. Donges, and Ilona M. Otto

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2241', Sibel Eker, 08 Feb 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on CC1', Jordan Everall, 03 Jun 2024
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2241', Anonymous Referee #1, 15 Apr 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Jordan Everall, 03 Jun 2024

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2241', Sibel Eker, 08 Feb 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on CC1', Jordan Everall, 03 Jun 2024
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2241', Anonymous Referee #1, 15 Apr 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Jordan Everall, 03 Jun 2024

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (05 Jun 2024) by Gabriele Messori
AR by Jordan Everall on behalf of the Authors (25 Jul 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (04 Aug 2024) by Gabriele Messori
RR by Sibel Eker (25 Sep 2024)
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (12 Oct 2024)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (12 Oct 2024) by Gabriele Messori
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (19 Nov 2024) by Ira Didenkulova (Chief editor)
AR by Jordan Everall on behalf of the Authors (27 Nov 2024)  Author's response   Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

28 Jan 2025
The Pareto effect in tipping social networks: from minority to majority
Jordan P. Everall, Fabian Tschofenig, Jonathan F. Donges, and Ilona M. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 189–214, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-189-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-189-2025, 2025
Short summary
Jordan Paul Everall, Jonathan F. Donges, and Ilona M. Otto
Jordan Paul Everall, Jonathan F. Donges, and Ilona M. Otto

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Latest update: 25 Feb 2025
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Short summary
A social tipping process is a rapid, large change in society, and can be started by few people. Does the 80/20 rule apply here? We see if this is the case for human social groups. We find that if so then it occurs when around 25 % of people engage. Tipping seems generally possible in the range of around 10 % to 40 % of the population, with most systems having tipped by the 40 % mark. When people don't change so easily, trusting groups of friends and housemates can help convince wayward friends.
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