Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1486
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1486
09 Aug 2023
 | 09 Aug 2023

Multi-fold increase in rainforests tipping risk beyond 1.5–2 °C warming

Chandrakant Singh, Ruud van der Ent, Ingo Fetzer, and Lan Wang-Erlandsson

Abstract. Tropical rainforests invest in their root systems to store moisture in their root zone from water-rich periods for use in water-scarce periods. An inadequate root-zone soil moisture storage predisposes or forces these forest ecosystems to transition to a savanna-like state, devoid of their native structure and functions. Yet changes in soil moisture storage and its influence on the rainforest ecosystems under future climate change remain uncertain. Using the (mass-balance-based) empirical understanding of root zone storage capacity, we assess the future state of the rainforests and the forest-to-savanna transition risk in South America and Africa under four different shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios. We find that under the end-of-the-21st-century climate, nearly one-third of the total forest area will be influenced by climate change. Furthermore, beyond 1.5–2 °C warming, ecosystem recovery reduces gradually, whereas the forest-savanna transition risk increases several folds. For Amazon, this risk can grow by about 1.5–6 times compared to its immediate lower warming scenario, whereas for Congo, this risk growth is not substantial (0.7–1.65 times). The insight from this study underscores the urgent need to limit global surface temperatures below the Paris Agreement.

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Journal article(s) based on this preprint

05 Dec 2024
Multi-fold increase in rainforest tipping risk beyond 1.5–2 °C warming
Chandrakant Singh, Ruud van der Ent, Ingo Fetzer, and Lan Wang-Erlandsson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1543–1565, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1543-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1543-2024, 2024
Short summary
Chandrakant Singh, Ruud van der Ent, Ingo Fetzer, and Lan Wang-Erlandsson

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1486', Anonymous Referee #1, 27 Sep 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Chandrakant Singh, 05 Mar 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1486', Anonymous Referee #2, 02 Jan 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Chandrakant Singh, 05 Mar 2024

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1486', Anonymous Referee #1, 27 Sep 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Chandrakant Singh, 05 Mar 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1486', Anonymous Referee #2, 02 Jan 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Chandrakant Singh, 05 Mar 2024

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (14 Mar 2024) by Anping Chen
AR by Chandrakant Singh on behalf of the Authors (26 May 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (04 Jun 2024) by Anping Chen
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (27 Aug 2024)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (27 Aug 2024) by Anping Chen
AR by Chandrakant Singh on behalf of the Authors (01 Sep 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (30 Sep 2024) by Anping Chen
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (15 Oct 2024) by Axel Kleidon (Chief editor)
AR by Chandrakant Singh on behalf of the Authors (15 Oct 2024)  Author's response   Manuscript 

Journal article(s) based on this preprint

05 Dec 2024
Multi-fold increase in rainforest tipping risk beyond 1.5–2 °C warming
Chandrakant Singh, Ruud van der Ent, Ingo Fetzer, and Lan Wang-Erlandsson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1543–1565, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1543-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1543-2024, 2024
Short summary
Chandrakant Singh, Ruud van der Ent, Ingo Fetzer, and Lan Wang-Erlandsson
Chandrakant Singh, Ruud van der Ent, Ingo Fetzer, and Lan Wang-Erlandsson

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Latest update: 05 Dec 2024
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Short summary
Tropical rainforests risk transforming into savanna-like landscapes under future climate change. By investigating the root zone storage dynamics and analyzing hydroclimate data from 33 Earth System Models (ESMs), we project the risk of rainforest tipping. While certain risks may be inevitable, the majority of them can still be avoided by adopting less severe climate scenarios. It is crucial to limit global surface temperatures below the Paris Agreement to preserve these valuable ecosystems.