26 Jan 2023
 | 26 Jan 2023
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0-rc: A platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change

Robert E. Kopp, Gregory G. Garner, Tim H. J. Hermans, Shantenu Jha, Praveen Kumar, Aimée B. A. Slangen, Matteo Turilli, Tamsin L. Edwards, Jonathan M. Gregory, George Koubbe, Anders Levermann, Andre Merzky, Sophie Nowicki, Matthew D. Palmer, and Chris Smith

Abstract. Future sea-level rise projections are characterized by both quantifiable uncertainty and unquantifiable, structural uncertainty. Thorough scientific assessment of sea-level rise projections requires analysis of both dimensions of uncertainty. Probabilistic sea-level rise projections evaluate the quantifiable dimension of uncertainty; comparison of alternative probabilistic methods provide an indication of structural uncertainty. Here we describe the Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS), a modular platform for characterizing alternative probability distributions of global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level rise. We demonstrate its application by generating seven alternative probability distributions under multiple alternative emissions scenarios for both future global mean sea level and future relative and extreme sea level at New York City. These distributions, closely aligned with those presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report, emphasize the role of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheet as drivers of structural uncertainty in sea-level rise projections.

Robert E. Kopp et al.

Status: open (until 26 Apr 2023)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-14', Benjamin Grandey, 03 Feb 2023 reply
  • CC2: 'Clarifiation about the method to project ODSL', Dewi Le Bars, 06 Feb 2023 reply
  • CC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-14', Vanessa Völz, 08 Feb 2023 reply

Robert E. Kopp et al.

Model code and software

Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level Kopp, R. E., Garner, G. G., Hermans, T. H. J., Jha, S., Kumar, P., Slangen, A. B. A., Turilli, M., Edwards, T. L., Gregory, J. M., Koubbe, G., Levermann, A., Merzky, A., Nowicki, S., Palmer, M. D., & Smith, C.

Robert E. Kopp et al.


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Short summary
Future sea-level rise exhibits multiple forms of uncertainty, all of which must be considered by scientific assessments intended to inform decision making. The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) is a new software package intended to support assessments of global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level rise. An early version of FACTS supported the development of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report sea level projections.