11 Jan 2023
11 Jan 2023
Status: this preprint is open for discussion.

Assessing the coastal hazard of medicane Ianos through ensemble modelling

Christian Ferrarin1, Florian Pantillon2, Silvio Davolio3, Marco Bajo1, Mario Marcello Miglietta4, Elenio Avolio5, Diego S. Carrió6, Ioannis Pytharoulis7, Claudio Sanchez8, Platon Patlakas9, Juan Jesús González-Alemán10, and Emmanouil Flaounas11 Christian Ferrarin et al.
  • 1CNR - National Research Council of Italy, ISMAR - Marine Sciences Institute, Venice, Italy
  • 2Laboratoire d’Aérologie, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, UPS, IRD, Toulouse, France
  • 3CNR - National Research Council of Italy, ISAC - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Bologna, Italy
  • 4CNR - National Research Council of Italy, ISAC - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Padua, Italy
  • 5CNR - National Research Council of Italy, ISAC - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Lamezia Terme, Italy
  • 6Department of Physics, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Palma, Spain
  • 7Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
  • 8Met Office, Exeter, UK
  • 9Department of Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
  • 10Spanish State Meteorological Agency, Madrid, Spain
  • 11Institute of Oceanography, Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Athens, Greece

Abstract. On 18 September 2020, medicane Ianos hit the western coast of Greece resulting in flooding and severe damage at several coastal locations. In this work, we aim at evaluating its impact on sea conditions and the associated uncertainty through the use of an ensemble of numerical simulations. We applied a coupled wave-current model to an unstructured mesh representing the whole Mediterranean Sea, with a grid resolution increasing in the Ionian Sea along the cyclone path and the landfall area. To investigate the uncertainty of modelling sea levels and waves for such an intense event, we performed a multimodel ensemble of ocean simulations using several coarse (10 km) and high-resolution (2 km) meteorological forcings from different mesoscale models. The performance of the ocean and wave models was evaluated against observations retrieved from fixed monitoring stations and satellites. All model runs emphasized the occurrence of severe sea conditions along the cyclone path and at the coast. Due to the rugged and complex coastline, extreme sea levels are localised at specific coastal sites. However, numerical results show a large spread of the simulated sea conditions for both the sea level and waves highlighting the large uncertainty in simulating this kind of extreme event. The multi-model / multi-physics approach allows us to assess how the uncertainty propagates from meteorological to ocean variables and the subsequent coastal impact. The ensemble mean and standard deviation were combined to prove the hazard scenarios of the potential impact of such an extreme event to be used in a flood risk management plan.

Christian Ferrarin et al.

Status: open (until 22 Feb 2023)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-990', Anonymous Referee #1, 19 Jan 2023 reply
    • RC2: 'Reply on RC1', Anonymous Referee #1, 19 Jan 2023 reply

Christian Ferrarin et al.

Christian Ferrarin et al.


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Short summary
The combined use of meteorological and ocean models enabled the analysis of extreme sea conditions driven by medicane Ianos, which hit the western coast of Greece on 18 September 2020, flooding and damaging the coast. The large spread associated with the ensemble highlighted the high model uncertainty in simulating such an extreme weather event. The different simulations have been used for outlining hazard scenarios that represent a fundamental component of the coastal risk assessment.