Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-990
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-990
11 Jan 2023
 | 11 Jan 2023

Assessing the coastal hazard of medicane Ianos through ensemble modelling

Christian Ferrarin, Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Marco Bajo, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Elenio Avolio, Diego S. Carrió, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Claudio Sanchez, Platon Patlakas, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, and Emmanouil Flaounas

Abstract. On 18 September 2020, medicane Ianos hit the western coast of Greece resulting in flooding and severe damage at several coastal locations. In this work, we aim at evaluating its impact on sea conditions and the associated uncertainty through the use of an ensemble of numerical simulations. We applied a coupled wave-current model to an unstructured mesh representing the whole Mediterranean Sea, with a grid resolution increasing in the Ionian Sea along the cyclone path and the landfall area. To investigate the uncertainty of modelling sea levels and waves for such an intense event, we performed a multimodel ensemble of ocean simulations using several coarse (10 km) and high-resolution (2 km) meteorological forcings from different mesoscale models. The performance of the ocean and wave models was evaluated against observations retrieved from fixed monitoring stations and satellites. All model runs emphasized the occurrence of severe sea conditions along the cyclone path and at the coast. Due to the rugged and complex coastline, extreme sea levels are localised at specific coastal sites. However, numerical results show a large spread of the simulated sea conditions for both the sea level and waves highlighting the large uncertainty in simulating this kind of extreme event. The multi-model / multi-physics approach allows us to assess how the uncertainty propagates from meteorological to ocean variables and the subsequent coastal impact. The ensemble mean and standard deviation were combined to prove the hazard scenarios of the potential impact of such an extreme event to be used in a flood risk management plan.

Christian Ferrarin et al.

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-990', Anonymous Referee #1, 19 Jan 2023
    • RC2: 'Reply on RC1', Anonymous Referee #1, 19 Jan 2023
      • AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Christian Ferrarin, 26 Apr 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Christian Ferrarin, 31 Jan 2023
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-990', Anonymous Referee #2, 15 Apr 2023

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-990', Anonymous Referee #1, 19 Jan 2023
    • RC2: 'Reply on RC1', Anonymous Referee #1, 19 Jan 2023
      • AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Christian Ferrarin, 26 Apr 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Christian Ferrarin, 31 Jan 2023
  • RC3: 'Comment on egusphere-2022-990', Anonymous Referee #2, 15 Apr 2023

Christian Ferrarin et al.

Christian Ferrarin et al.

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Short summary
The combined use of meteorological and ocean models enabled the analysis of extreme sea conditions driven by medicane Ianos, which hit the western coast of Greece on 18 September 2020, flooding and damaging the coast. The large spread associated with the ensemble highlighted the high model uncertainty in simulating such an extreme weather event. The different simulations have been used for outlining hazard scenarios that represent a fundamental component of the coastal risk assessment.