Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1445
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1445
 
16 Jan 2023
16 Jan 2023
Status: this preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).

Precipitation reconstructions for Paris based on the observations of Louis Morin, 1665–1713 CE

Thomas Pliemon1, Ulrich Foelsche1,2, Christian Rohr3,4, and Christian Pfister3 Thomas Pliemon et al.
  • 1Institute for Geophysics, Astrophysics and Meteorology/Institute of Physics (IGAM/IP), University of Graz, Graz, Austria
  • 2Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change (WEGC), University of Graz, Graz, Austria
  • 3Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
  • 4Institute of History, Section of Economic, Social Environmental History (WSU), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland

Abstract. This paper presents a precipitation reconstruction that is based on the continuous observations by Louis Morin in Paris from 1665–1713. Morin usually recorded precipitation intensity and duration, when it snowed/rained, three times each day (sometimes up to six times). The consistency of his observations can be calculated from his other measurements and observations (e.g. temperature, cloud cover), where at least one entry of his different measurements and observations for 98.7 % of all days is noted. To 5 convert these observations to common units, we calibrated them with a multiplicative interacting model using Philippe and Gabriele-Philippe de la Hire’s instrumental measurements from Paris. The two series of measurements by de la Hire (father and son) and observations by Morin overlap from 1688–1713. To test the quality of the reconstruction, we analyzed it with the de la Hire’s measurements, proxy data, an internal analysis of Morin’s measurements of different climate variables, and modern data. Thus, we assess the reliability of the precipitation reconstructions based on Morin’s data as follows. We have moderate confidence regarding the exact quantities of daily, seasonal, and annual precipitation totals. We have low confidence regarding exceptionally high precipitation amounts, but we have high confidence in the indices of an impact analysis (i.e., dry days, wet days, consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days), in monthly frequencies of rainfall, and in interannual, interseasonal, and interdecadal variability. Rainy seasons with precipitation totals greater than 250 mm occurred in MAM 1682, JJA 1682, SON 1687, JJA 1697 and JJA 1703. Furthermore, compared to other DJF seasons, the winter of 1666/67 stands out with a precipitation total of 248 mm. Dry seasons with precipitation totals less than 60 mm occurred in SON 1669, DJF 1690/91 and DJF 1693/94. An impact analysis shows no abnormalities regarding consecutive dry days or wet days in MAM. In JJA a longer dry period of 31 days appeared in 1686 and a dry period of 69 days appeared in DJF 1671/72.

Thomas Pliemon et al.

Status: open (until 13 Mar 2023)

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Thomas Pliemon et al.

Thomas Pliemon et al.

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Short summary
Louis Morin consistently recorded precipitation intensity and duration between 1665 and 1713. We use these records to reconstruct precipitation totals. This reconstruction is validated by several methods and then presented using precipitation indexes. Exceptional about this dataset is the availability of a subdaily resolution and the few missing data points over the entire measurement/observation period.